Overnight trading was defined by a sharp regional divergence: Victoria averaged just $14/MWh on the day — touching $8.95/MWh at the 06:30 AEST interval — while Tasmania held elevated at $86/MWh average and WA1 ran hot above $115/MWh. Strong export flows are pressing out of VIC1 on both the QNI corridor (972 MW northward) and the VIC–SA interconnector, compressing Victorian prices while supporting neighbouring regions. Queensland prices briefly printed $0/MWh during the overnight trough before climbing back to the mid-$60s to low-$70s range by early morning. Watch SA1 through the afternoon peak window — morning ramp pricing already cleared above $50/MWh and demand is expected to lift again from its current 1,400 MW base.
Tasmania — 100% renewable penetration at 18:00 AEST. Tasmania's grid ran fully on hydro (approximately 215–216 MW) and wind (approximately 169–176 MW) around the 18:00 AEST interval, with gas OCGT offline. Spot prices held steady in the $74.30–$74.95/MWh range during the period — no material price response despite the operating condition — and the 24-hour average of $86/MWh reflects Tasmania's structurally elevated pricing relative to the mainland. The day's high of $121/MWh was the equal-highest single-interval print across the NEM.
WA1 continued to trade in a tight band, with a 24-hour average of $115/MWh and a max of $122/MWh — the highest average of any region covered today. The WEM's structural separation from the NEM means interconnector dynamics offer no relief; pricing reflects local supply-demand conditions. No specific event data is available for the period, but the sustained elevated average warrants monitoring by WA-based energy managers heading into the Friday trading window.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. Gas hub prices firmed slightly day-on-day: Sydney STTM moved from $8.30/GJ to $8.80/GJ for the 8 May prompt, Brisbane STTM sits at $8.82/GJ, and Adelaide