Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Tuesday 5 May 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $113.76/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,307 MW and climbing as the morning progresses. This is well above the overnight trough — prices dipped into the $40–57/MWh range through the 2000–2330 AEST window before rebounding sharply above $85/MWh from around midnight and sustaining triple-digit levels from 12:30 AEST onward. The morning peak saw prices spike as high as $190.47/MWh at 16:35 AEST before settling back, and the current level reflects a firm but stabilised pre-evening demand build. Today's weather is adding heating load — Melbourne sits at 10.5°C with 74% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7.5, and no meaningful solar generation is available, consistent with the zero solar output recorded in the current generation mix.
The generation mix as of 05:55 AEST shows brown coal at 1,648 MW dominating the dispatch stack, wind contributing 467 MW, gas OCGT at 73 MW, and hydro at 33 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and today's heavily overcast forecast (69% average cloud cover). Renewable penetration stands at 22.53%, with wind providing the entirety of that contribution. Carbon intensity is 0.9264 tCO2/MWh — elevated compared to the overnight low of 0.7466 tCO2/MWh reached at 07:30 AEST, reflecting the lower renewable share as wind output has fallen back from what was a stronger contribution earlier in the session. Today's forecast wind potential is rated at just 0.8 out of 10 currently, though the multi-day outlook improves through Thursday and Friday.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC target) are converging in the $104–117/MWh range across the most recent runs, with the latest print at $117.43/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $114.49/MWh. This points to prices holding firm through the evening demand ramp, which the load window data supports — optimal load windows do not appear until after 09:00 AEST tonight (23:00 UTC), where prices are forecast to drop sharply into the single digits and even negative territory through the early hours of Thursday morning. Flexible industrial loads and batteries should target the 11:00–14:00 AEST window tonight for minimum cost exposure.
The one active market notice of direct relevance to today's dispatch is the AEMO foreseeable market intervention notice for South Australia, citing a voltage issue that may require a direction from 11:00 AEST today if insufficient market response emerges by 10:15 AEST. While this notice targets SA, any SA intervention can affect flows on the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors and consequently tighten supply conditions in Victoria, particularly if dispatch is constrained to manage voltage support. Traders with VIC–SA exposure should monitor interconnector flow limits closely through the late morning period. A Directlink outage notice (No.3 leg, NSW) remains active but has no direct Victorian impact.