Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Tuesday 5 May 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $88.16/MWh against total demand of 1,016.79 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, the region has traded in a tight band centred around $88.15–$88.18/MWh for the bulk of the period, with intermittent spikes to $96.22–$97.59/MWh during overnight and morning intervals and isolated excursions to $110–$112/MWh — notably at 14:00, 16:15, and 17:00 AEST — before settling back to the base level through the evening. The current price is firmly at the lower end of that range, consistent with reduced demand following the evening ramp-down.
The generation mix is entirely renewable: hydro is contributing 406.29 MW, wind 255.15 MW, and gas OCGT is offline at 0 MW, for a combined dispatch of approximately 661 MW from tracked sources against a regional demand of around 1,005 MW — the balance is accounted for by interconnector flows via Basslink (T-V-MNSP1). Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration recorded at 100%, a position that has been sustained across every carbon history interval in the dataset throughout the past 24 hours.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) point to prices consolidating in the $88.16–$88.22/MWh range, with some half-hour intervals forecast at $96.22–$96.26/MWh — the familiar step-up that has characterised overnight trading. From 11:00 AEST (01:00 UTC) forward, forecasts soften materially into the low-to-mid $74–$75/MWh range, suggesting a Victoria-linked price signal or reduced interconnector constraint through the early hours. Weather conditions today show 13.7°C current temperature, 70% cloud cover, and low wind potential of 2.8, with a daily high of 17°C forecast — modest heating demand and limited solar generation, consistent with the hydro and wind-dominated dispatch profile.
On market notices, the most operationally relevant item for TAS1 is the active RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY notice covering the Sheffield–George Town 1 & 2 220kV lines, which invokes constraint set T-GTSH_N-2 containing interconnector T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) on the left-hand side. This constraint remains active and directly limits Basslink transfer capability, which explains the price step-ups observed in the $96–$97/MWh range. A separate notice flagging a foreseeable AEMO market intervention in SA from 11:00 AEST today on voltage grounds is not directly a TAS1 issue but may influence mainland-to-island price signals depending on SA's effect on the south-eastern dispatch stack. Traders with Basslink-exposed positions should monitor the Sheffield–George Town line constraint closely for any restoration or further tightening through the day.