Regional Outlook — SA1 — Tuesday 5 May 2026

The South Australian spot price sits at $122.49/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,402 MW — a relatively modest level consistent with the overnight-to-early-morning shoulder period. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, SA has traded in a persistently elevated band, ranging from a low of $44.01/MWh in the early hours down to overnight troughs before climbing back through the $120–$140/MWh range repeatedly across the trading day. The overnight period saw several spikes to $185–$290/MWh between approximately 11:30 AEST and 12:35 AEST, reflecting tight gas-dominated supply conditions with minimal renewable contribution at those hours. The 24-hour average sits broadly in the $115–$125/MWh range, meaning the current price is in line with recent norms rather than representing any particular stress or relief.

The generation mix as of 06:25 AEST is entirely thermal and wind: gas CCGT is contributing 377 MW, gas OCGT 157 MW, and wind 106 MW, with solar at zero given pre-dawn conditions. Renewables are contributing 16.56% of supply at this interval — up from a daytime trough of under 2% during the 09:00–10:30 AEST period when wind output was minimal and solar had not yet established. Carbon intensity sits at 0.448 tCO2/MWh, having tracked as high as 0.513 tCO2/MWh during the mid-morning gas-heavy period. The weather outlook for today shows 58% cloud cover, a mild maximum of 16.6°C, and only modest wind potential (rated 1/10 currently), which constrains renewable output through the morning. Solar potential is negligible overnight but averages 5.1 for the day, suggesting some midday contribution once cloud permits.

The key market notice for SA today is AEMO's foreseeable intervention notice (Market Notice 144048), issued at 19:30 AEST last night. AEMO has identified a voltage-related foreseeable circumstance requiring potential intervention in the SA region from 11:00 AEST today (06 May). AEMO advised that, absent sufficient market response by 10:15 AEST, it may need to issue a direction. This is the dominant operational risk for the region this morning and traders should monitor for any direction notice issued around that threshold. Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period (21:00 UTC) cluster in the $115–$132/MWh range across multiple forecast runs, with the 21:30 AEST half-hour consistently forecasting $122–$138/MWh. The convergence of forecasts toward the high $120s suggests prices hold near current levels through the morning peak, with upside risk if AEMO issues a direction under the voltage intervention.

Flexible load operators should note that forward load window pricing signals for the 10:30–17:00 AEST window (00:30–07:00 UTC) point to very low or marginally negative prices — sub-$35/MWh and frequently near zero — indicating that dispatch economics improve significantly in the mid-morning to midday window. This is consistent with expected solar generation as cloud cover partially clears later in the day. The grid stress score of 82.1 and renewable penetration score of 32.1 underscore that today's SA market is