Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 5 May 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $130.90/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,562 MW. That figure represents a meaningful elevation above the overnight trough — prices fell as low as $34.99/MWh around 09:25 AEST before climbing steadily through the morning peak, reaching $153.60/MWh at 17:00 AEST and holding in the $110–$131/MWh band through the evening. The 24-hour price average across the history provided sits in the $90–$95/MWh range, confirming current prices are above the day's mean as evening demand builds. Grid stress is elevated, with the gridIQ stress score at 82.1/100.
The generation mix is heavily weighted to black coal at 2,506.58 MW, with hydro contributing 64.73 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.19 MW. Solar is at 0 MW, consistent with the after-dark interval. Renewable penetration stands at just 2.52%, down sharply from an overnight high of 22.2% when wind and other sources were more active — the absence of solar output at this hour is the primary driver of that compression. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8578 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's range and consistent with the coal-heavy overnight dispatch profile. The carbon intensity score of 52.4/100 reflects this position.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) point to $129.53/MWh, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast at $107.43/MWh — indicating the market expects some price softening as demand eases post-evening peak. Forecasts had been tracking between $105–$133/MWh for the 07:00 AEST target across the day, with the most recent pre-dispatch run ($129.53/MWh) converging toward actual prices. Load shifting windows rated "excellent" begin appearing from 08:30 AEST (09:00 UTC) onwards, with forecast prices dropping to the high $30s–low $40s/MWh — representing savings of over 90% against current levels. Today's weather outlook (max 25°C, 46% cloud cover) suggests moderate solar generation through the day but limited wind potential (0.4 average), so renewable penetration is unlikely to shift materially until solar ramps post-dawn.
Two market notices are relevant to Queensland operations. First, AEMO issued a notice (144024) confirming that from 5 May 2026, the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in QLD increases from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods where QLD islanding is considered credible — a change that modestly increases frequency response headroom but may affect FCAS pricing during constrained periods. Second, an active inter-regional transfer notice (144047) flags an unplanned outage of Directlink Leg 3, with constraint set N-MBTE_1 invoked affecting the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector — this limits NSW–QLD transfer capacity and is a factor in the sustained price elevation relative to what unconstrained interchange might otherwise deliver. The SA market intervention notice (144048) for voltage support from 11:00 AEST today is not directly a QLD issue but warrants monitoring for any broader NEM dispatch impacts.