Interconnector Watch: Tuesday 5 May 2026

At 06:30 AEST, VIC1-NSW1 (Heywood's northern counterpart, QNI's companion link) is carrying the heaviest flow on the NEM at 813.82 MW northbound from Victoria into New South Wales, against an export limit of 1,342.58 MW — utilisation sits around 61%. Victoria is priced at $113.76/MWh versus NSW at $134.88/MWh, a $21.12/MWh spread that is driving that northward movement and remains well within transfer capacity. No binding constraint is active on this link. The Heywood interconnector (V-SA) is exporting 374 MW westbound from Victoria into South Australia against a 600 MW export limit (62% utilised), consistent with SA's price of $122.49/MWh sitting $8.73/MWh above Victoria's — again, no binding constraint. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) adds a further 36 MW into SA, operating comfortably inside its 116 MW export limit.

On the Queensland–NSW boundary, QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 320.05 MW southbound into NSW — that is, Queensland is exporting — at roughly 28% of its 1,147.97 MW import limit from NSW's perspective. QLD prices at $130.90/MWh are below NSW's $134.88/MWh, so the southward flow aligns with the price signal. However, an active market notice (N-MBTE_1, invoked 02:30 AEST 5 May) flags a Directlink No. 3 Leg unplanned outage, constraining the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector. Directlink is currently flowing only -9 MW (9 MW northbound into QLD), well inside its reduced envelope, and N-Q-MNSP1 is not binding at present, but the constraint set remains active and traders should monitor QNI headroom if Queensland demand lifts through the morning peak.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow this interval. Tasmania is the cheapest region on the NEM at $88.16/MWh against Victoria's $113.76/MWh — a $25.60/MWh spread that would ordinarily pull MW northward into Victoria, but Basslink remains flat. Two successive reclassification notices for the Sheffield–George Town 1 & 2 220 kV lines in TAS1 due to lightning activity (the most recent cancellation issued at 00:04 AEST 5 May) invoked and then revoked constraint set T-GTSH_N-2 on T-V-MNSP1. The cancellation notice is marked active, meaning the contingency threat has cleared, but operators should confirm Basslink's operating envelope is fully restored before assuming the TAS-VIC spread can be arbitraged at scale today.

No interconnector is currently binding against its limit. The dominant price-shaping dynamic is the Victoria-to-NSW flow on VIC1-NSW1, which is compressing NSW prices relative to where they would clear in isolation. SA's premium above Victoria is being partially arbitraged via both Heywood and Murraylink. The outstanding Directlink outage notice on N-Q-MNSP1 and the residual Basslink contingency history are the two near-term risk items to watch as the Wednesday morning demand r