Commodity Demand — VIC1 — Tuesday 5 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $113.76/MWh with demand at 5,307 MW as of 06:30 AEST, marking a sharp acceleration from the $67–$85/MWh range that prevailed through the afternoon trough. The price-demand relationship across today's session has been pronounced: demand bottomed near 4,285 MW around 02:45 AEST when prices softened to the $73–$85/MWh band, then climbed steadily through the evening, with the current 5,307 MW load driving prices back above $113/MWh. The morning's most acute price response came at 17:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) when demand surged past 5,900 MW toward a session peak of approximately 6,900 MW between 08:30–09:00 AEST, pushing prices to $127–$143/MWh. That peak has since receded as the working day wind-down brought demand back below 5,200 MW, but the current evening ramp is now reversing that trend.

The generation mix at the time of the last reading shows brown coal at 1,652 MW, wind at 449 MW, hydro at 111 MW, and gas OCGT at 74 MW, with solar at zero given the overnight hour. Renewables are contributing 24.49% of supply at a carbon intensity of 0.9027 tCO2/MWh — notably firmer than the 0.75 tCO2/MWh readings seen during this morning's wind-assisted period around 07:00–08:00 AEST when renewables briefly reached 36%.

Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) and 07:30 AEST intervals are clustering in the $104–$117/MWh range across the most recent AEMO pre-dispatch runs, consistent with demand continuing to build through the evening peak. Today's weather is providing a material demand driver: Melbourne is sitting at 10.5°C with a heating demand index of 7.5, and tomorrow's forecast of 10°C minimum with 69% average cloud cover signals sustained heating load through Wednesday's morning peak. Load windows data points to prices collapsing to near-zero or negative territory between 09:00–10:00 AEST (23:00–00:00 UTC) as overnight demand troughs, with the best flex opportunities concentrated in the 01:30–05:30 AEST window.

Traders should note the active AEMO market intervention notice for SA from 11:00 AEST today citing voltage management concerns — while directly affecting SA, any direction-driven dispatch changes in that region can influence Victoria's interconnector flows via Heywood, adding a layer of price uncertainty to the Wednesday morning ramp. The Directlink No.3 leg outage (NSW) remains in place but is unlikely to materially alter VIC pricing dynamics absent further NEM-wide stress.