Commodity Demand — TAS1 — Tuesday 5 May 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.16/MWh with demand at 1,016 MW at 06:30 AEST, tracking well below the day's peak. The price-demand relationship across today's data is clear: demand above roughly 1,150–1,200 MW consistently pulls prices into the $96–$112/MWh band, while demand below 1,050 MW gravitates back toward the $88–$89/MWh floor. The most acute price sensitivity appeared around the morning peak, where demand reached approximately 1,211 MW at 07:35 AEST and prices touched $112/MWh in isolated intervals. The overnight trough — demand bottoming near 820–840 MW through the 01:00–04:00 AEST window — held prices flat at $88.15/MWh, confirming a tight two-tier pricing structure rather than a smooth demand-price curve.
Demand is now climbing through the early-evening build. From a trough of around 820 MW in the mid-afternoon, demand has risen steadily since approximately 05:30 AEST, consistent with the autumn evening heating load pattern at 13.7°C with a heating demand index of 4.3. The trajectory points toward a second peak period tonight. Forward forecasts for the 07:00–10:30 AEST window (17:00–20:30 AEST local) cluster around $88–$96/MWh, suggesting dispatchers expect demand to remain contained below the level that forces higher-priced capacity into the merit order — the gas OCGT sits at 0 MW currently and the 661 MW of hydro and wind generation is managing load comfortably.
A prior AEMO LOR1 reserve notice for Tasmania (declared 01 May, cancelled 02 May) had flagged a potential shortfall during the 07:30–08:00 AEST window this morning; that condition did not materialise, with demand peaking at 1,211 MW and prices remaining below $115/MWh. Scattered $96–$112/MWh spikes through this morning's data appear tied to dispatch constraint events rather than sustained demand pressure, as prices snapped back to the $88 floor within one or two intervals. The current demand ramp warrants monitoring: if tonight's heating demand pushes above 1,150 MW — consistent with the pattern seen at equivalent times on the prior day — a step up to the $96/MWh tier is the base-case expectation, with the $110/MWh range possible if demand reaches the 1,190–1,210 MW zone seen this morning.