Commodity Demand — SA1 — Tuesday 5 May 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $122.49/MWh with demand at 1,402 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That price level is consistent with the tight $103–$139/MWh band that has dominated overnight trading, reflecting a generation mix of 377 MW from gas CCGT, 157 MW from gas OCGT, and 106 MW from wind, with solar contributing nothing in these pre-dawn hours. The price-demand relationship across the session is clear: the overnight trough saw demand fall to around 1,075 MW between 14:30–15:00 AEST, with prices still holding above $100/MWh — indicating the floor is set by gas dispatch economics rather than demand softness alone. The day's demand peak hit 1,839 MW at approximately 18:30–18:40 AEST, where prices remained in the $123–$135/MWh range rather than spiking sharply, suggesting adequate committed capacity absorbed the peak without marginal unit stress.

The forecast trajectory for today points to demand climbing through the morning as the working day begins. The 17:00 AEST hour AEMO notice is the critical overlay: AEMO has flagged a foreseeable intervention event in SA from 11:00 AEST today due to a voltage issue, with a market response deadline of 10:15 AEST. This constraint is already shaping near-term price expectations — forecast RRPs for the 07:00–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:30 UTC) are priced in the $122–$130/MWh range, with earlier pre-dawn forecasts reaching as high as $154/MWh before moderating as the dispatch picture clarified. The voltage-driven intervention risk adds a non-demand factor that could push prices above what the demand curve alone would justify, particularly if AEMO issues a direction before the 10:15 AEST response deadline.

The load window data signals that off-peak pricing relief is expected from roughly 11:00–19:30 AEST (01:00–09:30 UTC), where forecast prices drop sharply — into single digits and briefly negative — consistent with solar generation building through the day and demand sitting in the 1,100–1,400 MW range. This creates a significant intraday spread opportunity: current prices above $120/MWh contrast with mid-morning forecast prices near or below zero. Demand-side participants and battery operators should note the 10:15 AEST AEMO response deadline as the key near-term trigger; any direction issued after that point could compress the expected mid-morning price trough if dispatchable capacity is locked into compliance obligations rather than economic bidding.