Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Monday 4 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $88.18/MWh with total demand at 1,081 MW as of 6:35 AEST. That price represents a marked retreat from the morning peak, which saw intervals touch $154.79/MWh at 6:30 AEST and $126.36/MWh around 6:05 AEST during the morning demand ramp. The 24-hour price range has been wide — overnights troughed near $74.52/MWh in the early hours before climbing sharply into the morning, then consolidating around the $88/MWh range through the mid-morning and afternoon. The current $88.18/MWh has been remarkably sticky since around 18:00 AEST, suggesting the dispatch price is settling at a floor consistent with Tasmania's prevailing offer stack.

Generation sits at 600 MW of dispatchable output, split between hydro at 532 MW and wind at 68 MW, with gas OCGT contributing zero. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — a figure that has held continuously across the entire 24-hour price history window. The 1,081 MW of total demand exceeds the 600 MW of metered local generation in the data, with the balance implied to be flowing via the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) from Victoria. Weather at 6:35 AEST is cool at 9.4°C with light winds at 5.2 km/h and 35% cloud cover; today's outlook tops out at 16.6°C, keeping heating demand elevated and suppressing solar potential (daily average 1.8).

On the network notices front, Tasmania experienced a sequence of lightning-related contingency reclassifications overnight affecting multiple 110 kV and 220 kV lines across the state, including the Sheffield–George Town 220 kV circuits, which triggered the T-GTSH_N-2 constraint set with T-V-MNSP1 on the left-hand side — directly constraining Basslink transfer capability. All TAS1 contingency reclassifications have since been cancelled and constraints revoked as of approximately 00:04–00:14 AEST today. Separately, a Forecast LOR1 was declared for TAS1 between 07:30 and 08:00 AEST this morning (capacity reserve requirement 577 MW, minimum available 561 MW), though it was subsequently cancelled on 2 May; the morning price spike to $109–$126/MWh in the 17:10–18:15 AEST window aligns with that tighter reserve margin materialising at the demand peak.

Predispatch forecasts for the next two hours point to prices holding at $88.18/MWh through the 21:30 AEST half-hour, before stepping up toward the $96–$130/MWh range from the 23:00–23:30 AEST period onwards as demand climbs into the evening peak. The 10:00–11:00 AEST (local) window overnight shows forecast prices in the $110–$130/MWh band, consistent with a tighter supply balance once the Tasmanian evening ramp fully develops. Traders with flexible load or interruptible contracts should note the $88/MWh window this evening is relatively short-lived; predispatch consistently signals a step-change higher beginning