NEM Overview — Monday 4 May 2026

Grid stress sits at 79.2/100 — the headline number for Tuesday morning. SA is the priciest region at $103.44/MWh against demand of 1,418 MW, driven in part by constrained interconnector flows: the V-SA link is running at its export limit of 508 MW and is binding, while V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) is also binding at 162 MW. That combination is compressing supply options into SA and supporting the price premium over VIC ($70.15/MWh) and NSW ($77.74/MWh). QLD sits at $82.49/MWh with 6,495 MW of demand, and TAS comes in at $88.18/MWh on 1,081 MW. The $33/MWh spread between VIC and SA is the sharpest regional differential on the board this morning.

The active Directlink outage (No. 3 Leg, constraint set N-MBTE_1 invoked at 02:30 AEST this morning) is restricting the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector, which is currently flowing just 25 MW north into QLD against an export limit of 89 MW. QNI is carrying 215 MW north from NSW to QLD and is not binding, but the Directlink restriction reduces flexibility on that corridor. Traders should note the DWGM planned maintenance outage runs from 22:20 tonight through 04:00 tomorrow AEST — gas market submissions during that window carry execution risk.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is 31.5% on the gridIQ score, though the regional picture is uneven. TAS is running at 100% renewable (600 MW from hydro and wind, zero thermal), VIC reaches 37.3% on the back of 900 MW of wind output, and SA sits at 24.9% with 88 MW of wind supplemented by 265 MW of gas. NSW renewable penetration is just 11.1% — 419 MW wind and 120 MW solar against 5,828 MW of black coal — and QLD is at 3.7% with solar output at zero in the pre-dawn interval and coal carrying 2,246 MW. Overall carbon intensity scores reflect this: QLD at 0.8475 tCO2/MWh and NSW at 0.7826 tCO2/MWh are the highest on the NEM; SA at 0.4047 tCO2/MWh is materially lower given its gas-and-renewables mix and VIC import support.

Today's outlook is shaped by two factors. NSW cloud cover is minimal (5%) with a forecast max of 22.1°C, so solar will build through the morning and should support lower midday prices — wind potential is modest at 2.0 average for the day. Victoria is heavily overcast (87% cloud cover today, forecast average 87%) with near-zero solar potential, meaning wind at 900 MW is carrying the renewable load there and any wind drop will push VIC prices up. The previously flagged TAS LOR1 window (07:30–08:00 AEST) has been formally cancelled per Market Notice 144027, removing that reserve concern, though the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is sitting at zero flow this interval with Tasmanian transmission contingencies from overnight lightning activity now resolved. Very Fast Contingency FCAS