Load Advisor — Monday 4 May 2026

Spot prices are sitting at 77.74 $/MWh in NSW, 70.15 $/MWh in VIC, 103.44 $/MWh in SA, 82.49 $/MWh in QLD, and 88.18 $/MWh in TAS at the current interval (07:35 AEST). The deepest savings opportunity across the NEM lies in the overnight trough forecast to arrive from approximately 08:30 AEST (22:30 UTC) tonight and extend through to around 14:00 AEST tomorrow. NSW prices will fall into the 56–79 $/MWh range from 08:30, then drop further to a floor of roughly 8–24 $/MWh between 11:00 and 13:30 AEST, before recovering. VIC follows a similar trajectory, with prices falling to 35–55 $/MWh from 09:00 AEST and troughing near 8–15 $/MWh around 11:00–12:00 AEST. QLD predispatch shows prices declining to 40 $/MWh or below from 09:00 AEST, with a sustained sub-25 $/MWh band between 10:30 and 13:30 AEST.

SA stands apart. Prices are already the highest on the NEM at 103 $/MWh and predispatch forecasts show persistent elevation — largely in the 103–138 $/MWh band — throughout the overnight period with spikes toward 200 $/MWh forecast between 17:00 and 20:00 AEST today (07:00–10:00 UTC). SA operators with deferrable load should act now to front-load consumption before the afternoon peak or target the modest 49–60 $/MWh dip forecast in the 11:30–13:30 AEST window. TAS prices are elevated at 88–130 $/MWh through the overnight period with no clear trough below 90 $/MWh until after 17:00 AEST tomorrow; load shifting opportunities there are limited today.

The primary recommendation for NSW, VIC, and QLD flexible load operators is to defer discretionary consumption — industrial processes, battery charging, water heating, EV charging, and pump loads — out of the current morning period and target the 11:00–13:30 AEST window, where predispatch consistently shows prices below 25 $/MWh in NSW and VIC and below 40 $/MWh in QLD. Avoid scheduling inflexible load in the 17:30–20:30 AEST window today across all regions, where both demand pickup and SA price contagion will push prices upward. The afternoon step-up from approximately 16:30 AEST (06:30 UTC) in NSW and QLD — already visible in predispatch at 102–117 $/MWh — confirms that window as the clear period to be out of the market.