Carbon Forecast — Monday 4 May 2026

Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 532 MW and wind at 68 MW covering the entire load with nothing left for thermal. That is the cleanest grid on the NEM by a wide margin and has been consistently at zero intensity throughout the data period. South Australia sits at 0.40 tCO2/MWh with 25% renewable penetration at the 06:30 AEST reading, a notable step up from the sub-0.10 tCO2/MWh levels recorded earlier in the morning when wind was carrying 80–88% of local supply. SA's intensity has been climbing through the evening as wind output drops and gas CCGT (184 MW) and gas OCGT (81 MW) pick up the balance — that trend is likely to continue into tonight's peak.

Victoria is currently at 0.73 tCO2/MWh with 37% renewables, driven by 900 MW of wind alongside 1,435 MW of brown coal and 135 MW of gas OCGT. VIC intensity was tracking between 0.47–0.51 tCO2/MWh in the early hours when wind penetration was above 55%, but has risen steadily through the business day as demand climbed. NSW sits at 0.78 tCO2/MWh with just 11% renewable penetration — black coal at 5,828 MW dominates the dispatch stack, with wind contributing 419 MW and solar a modest 120 MW. NSW intensity has held in a tight 0.76–0.85 tCO2/MWh band all day with no material variation expected until wind ramps overnight. Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with only 3.7% renewables — black coal at 2,246 MW is carrying virtually the entire load, solar has dropped to zero, and intensity has been locked in the 0.845–0.850 tCO2/MWh range since the morning ramp with almost no intraday movement.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling, the best windows today are in Tasmania at any hour (zero intensity, all day), with SA offering a secondary opportunity in the 07:00–10:30 AEST window when wind penetration was above 80% and intensity was below 0.09 tCO2/MWh — that morning window has now passed. Looking ahead to the rest of today, SA intensity will continue rising into the evening peak as solar stays at zero and wind output remains soft at 88 MW; expect SA to track toward 0.40–0.50 tCO2/MWh through tonight. VIC's next low-intensity window will depend on overnight wind recovery — if wind holds above 800–900 MW, intensity could ease back below 0.60 tCO2/MWh in the early hours of Wednesday. NSW and QLD offer no meaningful green windows today; carbon-sensitive loads in those regions should defer to overnight periods if marginal wind uplift brings NSW intensity back toward the 0.74–0.76 tCO2/MWh range seen around midnight.