Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Sunday 3 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at -$2/MWh at 06:30 AEST against a demand of 4,725 MW, continuing a pattern of negative to near-zero pricing that has dominated most of the past 24 hours outside of the morning peak. That peak, which ran from approximately 17:30 to 19:15 AEST, saw prices climb to a session high of $19.56/MWh before retreating sharply back into negative territory as demand eased. The bulk of the overnight and daytime period has traded between -$3.55/MWh and $0/MWh, reflecting comfortable supply conditions through the off-peak window.

The current generation mix at 06:30 AEST has wind contributing 1,547 MW, brown coal at 1,279 MW, gas (OCGT) at 136 MW, hydro at 30 MW, and solar at zero — consistent with overnight conditions. Renewables are contributing 52.7% of the mix at a carbon intensity of 0.5511 tCO2/MWh. That intensity figure is actually elevated relative to the day's best reading of 0.4533 tCO2/MWh recorded around 00:30 AEST, when renewable penetration peaked at 60.6% during strong afternoon wind conditions. Carbon intensity was highest this morning during the pre-dawn demand ramp, reaching 0.7267 tCO2/MWh at 17:00 AEST as wind output softened relative to dispatchable plant. Today's weather outlook — a mild 12–19°C range with low cloud cover and average wind potential of 13.8 — supports continued solid wind output through the day, though solar potential remains modest at 12.9 on average.

Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp and sustained price lift into the evening peak. The 07:00 AEST target period is currently forecast at approximately $26/MWh, with the consensus across multiple predispatch runs from early afternoon through to the most recent 06:01 AEST run sitting firmly in the $23–$26/MWh range. This is a classic autumn evening demand pattern: solar generation is absent after sunset, heating demand rises as temperatures drop from the 19°C daytime high toward the 12°C overnight low, and wind alone carries the renewable contribution. Flexible load operators and battery operators should note that negative price windows are forecast to persist in the 08:30–09:30 AEST period (prices modelled at -$3 to -$13/MWh in load window data) before the evening ramp begins. The overnight window from approximately 10:30 AEST through to 12:00 AEST is similarly forecast to carry sustained negative prices, making it the most attractive window for discretionary consumption or charging.

One VIC1-specific market notice warrants attention: AEMO reclassified the Eildon PS – Mt Beauty No.1 and No.2 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event earlier this morning due to lightning activity, with that reclassification subsequently cancelled at 06:04 AEST once lightning cleared the area. No constraint sets were invoked and no pricing impact has been attributed to the event, but it is a reminder that convective weather remains active in the Victorian high-voltage transmission corridor heading into this week. The MSATS 56.2 release scheduled for 10 May introduces a planned system outage from 20:00–00:00