Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Sunday 3 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $84.19/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,083 MW. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices have been notably range-bound, oscillating between a low of $68.41/MWh during the midday trough and a high of $105.90/MWh during the morning peak around 18:05 AEST, with a dominant floor of $88.24/MWh appearing repeatedly through the overnight period — a pattern consistent with a binding interconnector or hydro scheduling floor. The current price sits marginally below that overnight anchor, suggesting a slight easing in dispatch pressure as the morning ramp is still building.

The generation mix at the latest interval (06:30 AEST) comprises hydro at 336.5 MW and wind at 81.1 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh, a figure that has held continuously across the entire 24-hour history in the data. Total generation from metered sources (417.6 MW) is well below the 1,083 MW demand figure, indicating significant import flow from the Basslink interconnector with Victoria is contributing to meeting load — a normal condition for Tasmania when hydro dispatch alone is insufficient.

Predispatch forecasts point to a modest step-up from current levels, with the 07:00 AEST half-hour trading at around $85.10/MWh, the 08:30 AEST period firming to approximately $87.81/MWh, and the overnight periods through to 18:30 AEST tomorrow largely anchored at $88.24/MWh. The near-term trajectory is flat to slightly higher, with no forecast spikes in the visible predispatch window. Notably, a Forecast LOR1 condition was declared for the TAS region on 5 May 2026 between 07:30–08:00 AEST (Market Notice 144025), though AEMO subsequently cancelled it (Notice 144027) — traders should note this reserve margin remains tight heading into tomorrow morning's demand peak, with the forecast capacity reserve of 561 MW falling short of the 577 MW requirement at the time of original declaration.

On the network side, two TAS1 contingency reclassifications are active in the notice log: the Norwood–Scottsdale 1 110kV and Norwood–Derby–Scottsdale 110kV lines were reclassified as credible contingency events due to lightning activity overnight (Notice 144031), then cancelled (Notice 144033), with no constraint sets invoked in either case. Similarly, the Burnie–Port Latta–Smithton 110kV parallel lines were reclassified and then cleared earlier in the day. No constraint sets were invoked across any of these events, so dispatch has not been materially impacted. Weather today shows a clearing outlook — temperature reaching 19.1°C with average cloud cover at 15% — which will provide moderate solar generation potential across the day but with wind potential effectively negligible per the forecast.