Regional Outlook — SA1 — Sunday 3 May 2026

The South Australia spot price sits at -$2/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,457 MW. This negative pricing is consistent with conditions seen across most of the past 24 hours — the region has traded at or below zero for the overwhelming majority of intervals since yesterday evening, with the deepest excursion hitting -$34.60/MWh briefly around 13:20 AEST and a cluster of -$20/MWh intervals through the early hours of this morning. The only sustained positive pricing occurred during the morning demand ramp between approximately 18:00–19:30 AEST, where prices briefly climbed to $31.63/MWh at peak. The 24-hour price profile is firmly negative on average.

The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 789 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 113 MW and OCGT and solar both at zero output. Renewable penetration sits at 87.42% at the latest interval. Carbon intensity is 0.0616 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the range seen across today — the grid tracked between 0.0476 and 0.0844 tCO2/MWh over the past 24 hours, with the lowest intensity recorded during midday when wind output was strongest relative to load. The autumn shoulder demand profile — currently sitting well below summer peaks at 1,457 MW — combined with strong wind output is the primary driver of both negative prices and low carbon intensity throughout the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price transition through the evening. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) trading period is forecast at approximately -$1.05/MWh across the majority of runs, with some later runs revising toward slightly positive territory around $0.05–$5.30/MWh. The 07:30 AEST period is consistently forecast positive at $6.25–$8.62/MWh across all available runs, signalling the expected evening demand ramp will push prices into positive territory as solar remains offline and wind output alone carries less of the load. Overnight, forecasts return to negative — the 11:00 AEST (UTC+10:30) period shows forecast prices ranging from -$3 to -$13.61/MWh, reflecting anticipated wind generation continuing into the night against low overnight demand. Today's weather data supports this: wind potential is currently at 18.3 and the 5-day outlook shows consistently cloudy conditions with modest solar potential (7.2 average for today), so wind will remain the dominant generation source through the week.

There are no active market notices directly affecting SA1 today. The notices in the dataset relate to contingency reclassifications in TAS1 and VIC1 due to lightning activity (both subsequently cancelled), a QNI interconnector restriction in NSW/QLD, and a previously cancelled Forecast LOR1 for SA on 28 April — that reserve condition is resolved. Traders and grid engineers should monitor the 07:30–09:00 AEST window for the evening price spike, and note that the MSATS system outage is scheduled for 10 May 2026 between 10:00–14:00 AEST, which will affect settlement data access.