Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 3 May 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $50.61/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 5,729 MW. This is a notable step down from the morning peak, which saw prices consistently in the $64–$73/MWh range between 17:00 and 22:00 AEST as demand climbed to a day-high of around 7,370 MW. Overnight, the region experienced an extended period of negative and near-zero prices from roughly 07:25 to 13:45 AEST, with the floor touching -$2.73/MWh — a pattern consistent with thermal baseload running through a low-demand trough with limited ability to back off.
The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 2,056 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar output is zero at this hour, consistent with the overnight reading. Renewable penetration sits at just 4.01% — the lowest point of the day — reflecting the absence of solar and minimal wind contribution. This compares to a daytime low around the same range (3.89–4.22%) that has persisted since approximately 17:00 AEST, confirming solar has had minimal presence today in the dispatch mix. Carbon intensity is 0.8447 tCO2/MWh, essentially flat across the entire day since solar dropped off, ranging between 0.8429 and 0.8464 tCO2/MWh for the past 12 hours.
The predispatch outlook signals a material price lift through the coming hours. The most recent forecast (issued at 06:01 AEST) has the 07:00 AEST half-hour at $63.99/MWh, up from the current $50.61/MWh. The 07:30 AEST period is forecast at $56.32/MWh, with load window data pointing to prices declining further into the $33–$40/MWh range through the 09:00–10:00 AEST window as morning solar generation builds — today's weather outlook shows average solar potential of 14.1% for 4 May with cloud cover dropping to 39%, which should support a more meaningful solar contribution than today's overcast conditions (98% cloud cover currently). Overnight periods from 08:30 to 10:00 AEST show load window prices as low as $0–$5/MWh in some predispatch runs, indicating significant potential for sub-floor pricing again once solar peaks.
The active market notice directly relevant to Queensland is AEMO Market Notice 144024, issued 1 May 2026, advising that from 5 May 2026 the cap on dispatch of Very Fast Contingency FCAS in the QLD region will increase from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods where islanding is considered credible. This takes effect tomorrow and has implications for FCAS cost exposure and dispatch optimisation for any participant with fast-response assets in QLD. A QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550) was invoked on 29 April due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage scheduled until 17:00 on 2 May — that outage window has now passed, but traders should confirm constraint revocation via the NOS before assuming full QNI transfer capacity is restored today.