Commodity Demand — TAS1 — Sunday 3 May 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $84.19/MWh with demand at 1,083 MW as of 06:35 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that has been building since the 18:00 AEST trough of around 836–889 MW. The demand trajectory is clearly upward — from a daytime low near 836 MW at 15:40 AEST through to the current level — and price has responded in step, lifting from a $72–75/MWh range during the afternoon into the low-to-mid $80s as the evening load builds. The most price-sensitive threshold observed across today's history sits around the 1,000 MW mark, where dispatch pricing consistently stepped up from the $72–75/MWh band into the $84–88/MWh range. Above approximately 1,150 MW during the morning peak (07:00–09:00 AEST), a brief spike to $105.90/MWh occurred at 06:05 AEST before retreating, indicating the marginal dispatch stack tightens meaningfully at those demand levels.

The near-term demand trajectory points higher. Current conditions — 12°C, 100% cloud cover, and a heating demand signal — are consistent with continued residential load growth through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. Today's morning peak reached 1,211 MW at 17:40 AEST (07:40 local equivalent), and the equivalent Monday morning peak is likely to approach or exceed 1,150–1,200 MW given residential and commercial load returning after the weekend. Forecast pricing for the 07:00–09:30 AEST block sits at $85.10–$87.85/MWh, broadly consistent with current levels but with upside risk if demand overshoots. The generation mix — 336.5 MW hydro and 81.1 MW wind against 1,083 MW total demand — leaves Tasmania drawing on Basslink imports to balance, which constrains the supply cushion during peak periods.

Two market notice items are directly relevant to today's demand outlook. First, AEMO issued a Forecast LOR1 for Tasmania on Tuesday 5 May from 07:30–08:00 AEST, with available capacity (561 MW) forecast to fall below the reserve requirement (577 MW). This reserve tightness aligns precisely with the morning demand peak window and signals that any demand overshoot or generation unavailability during that 30-minute period carries material price risk beyond the current $85–88/MWh forecast range. Second, the Norwood–Scottsdale 110kV contingency reclassification — active earlier today due to lightning before being cancelled — is a reminder that network constraints in northern Tasmania can bind during high-demand periods when Basslink is already carrying significant import flow.

For today's trading, the $85–88/MWh band is well-supported through the morning peak, with the LOR1 window at 07:30–08:00 AEST the primary price risk event. Demand clearing above 1,180–1,200 MW in that period, combined with any Basslink constraint or generator trip, could push prices materially above the forecast range. The afternoon period (12:00–17:00 AEST local) is forecast to ease back toward 850–950 MW based on today's pattern, with prices likely to soften into the $72–80/MWh range before the second evening ramp commences around