Commodity Demand — SA1 — Sunday 3 May 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at -$2/MWh with demand at 1,457 MW as of 06:35 AEST, continuing a negative pricing regime that has dominated the region for the bulk of the past 24 hours. Wind is producing 789 MW against gas CCGT at 114 MW, with solar output at zero given the pre-dawn conditions. The price-demand relationship over the past several hours tells a clear story: whenever demand climbed toward and above 1,600 MW during the morning peak — reaching a session high of 1,735 MW around 19:30–19:45 AEST — prices pushed into positive territory, touching $31.63/MWh at 18:05 AEST before retreating. Conversely, demand troughed near 757 MW in the early hours (around 10:05–10:35 AEST) and prices compressed to -$5.15/MWh, with an intraday extreme of -$34.60/MWh recorded just after 13:20 AEST when demand briefly fell to 654 MW — the sharpest negative price of the period.

The demand trajectory today follows an autumn weekday profile. From the current 1,458 MW, demand is forecast to ramp through the Monday morning commercial and industrial load pickup, with the data showing the region regularly cresting 1,600–1,730 MW during the 18:00–20:00 AEST window. That evening peak is where today's primary price risk sits. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are tracking near flat to slightly negative in the -$1/MWh range across most runs, though the most recent pre-settlement forecast at 06:01 AEST jumped to +$5.30/MWh — a signal that the dispatch model is already pricing in tighter conditions as demand builds. The 07:30 AEST half-hour carries consistent forecasts in the +$6.25–$8.62/MWh range across all available runs, consistent with the positive pricing observed during yesterday's equivalent demand period.

For today's outlook, the window between approximately midnight and 06:30 AEST is forecast to sustain the deepest negative prices, ranging from -$3/MWh to -$12.50/MWh, as demand sits in the 750–900 MW range with wind generation continuing. Prices are then expected to lift toward zero and into low positive territory during the 06:30–08:00 AEST ramp as residential and commercial load returns. The evening peak — roughly 08:00–11:00 AEST — is the period where positive prices are most likely to consolidate, with the extent depending on how firmly wind output holds. Temperature today is forecast at 13–16°C, which keeps heating demand modest and places a natural ceiling on peak demand versus cooler-month conditions.

Demand-side participants should note the forecast LOR1 notice for Tasmania on 5 May (07:30–08:00 AEST), which has since been cancelled, carrying no direct constraint on SA flows. No active market notices affect SA interconnector capacity today, leaving the Heywood link available to arbitrage price differentials with Victoria — a factor that will temper any upside price spikes during the evening ramp if Victorian prices remain lower.