Carbon Forecast — Sunday 3 May 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM sits at sharply divergent levels at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, driven entirely by hydro (336.5 MW) and wind (81.1 MW) — this has been the consistent position across the entire dataset with no thermal generation in the mix. South Australia is at 0.06 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 87.4%, where wind (789.4 MW) is the dominant source alongside a modest gas CCGT contribution of 113.6 MW. Victoria sits mid-range at 0.55 tCO2/MWh with 52.7% renewable penetration; wind is providing 1,547 MW against 1,279 MW of brown coal and 136.3 MW of gas OCGT. Queensland and NSW are at the high end — 0.84 tCO2/MWh (4.0% renewables) and 0.81 tCO2/MWh (7.9% renewables) respectively — with both regions running predominantly on black coal (QLD1: 2,056 MW; NSW1: 4,453 MW) and negligible wind and solar output at this hour.

The pattern through the overnight and early-morning periods is consistent with what the data shows across all regions: Queensland and NSW have held between 0.78–0.85 tCO2/MWh for the full window, with renewable penetration constrained to single digits. Both regions had brief dips toward 0.69–0.75 tCO2/MWh in the pre-dawn hours (roughly 07:00–12:00 UTC, or 17:00–22:00 AEST Sunday) when wind was more active, but those windows have now passed. SA has been consistently below 0.08 tCO2/MWh throughout, reaching a low of 0.05 tCO2/MWh around 19:30–20:00 AEST Sunday. Victoria's tightest intensity readings — below 0.50 tCO2/MWh — occurred during the 00:30 and 14:30–15:00 AEST windows on Sunday, when wind penetration pushed above 60%.

For carbon-sensitive loads today, Tasmania and SA are the clear scheduling targets across all hours — TAS1 is structurally at zero intensity and SA1 is unlikely to deviate significantly from the 0.05–0.08 tCO2/MWh band given the sustained wind resource visible in the data. VIC1 offers intermittent low-intensity windows: watch for periods when wind output climbs above 1,500 MW and brown coal dispatch holds steady or steps back, which has pushed intensity below 0.48 tCO2/MWh in prior intervals. With no solar generation recorded in VIC1 or QLD1 at this hour and minimal NSW solar (44.3 MW), the midday solar ramp from approximately 09:00–14:00 AEST is the next likely window for intensity improvement in NSW and QLD — though given the heavy coal baseload in both regions, expect only modest reductions toward the 0.75–0.80 tCO2/MWh range rather than any step-change. Carbon-sensitive scheduling in QLD1 and NSW1 should be treated as best-of-a-limited-range