Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Saturday 2 May 2026

The spot price sits at -$2.26/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 3,778 MW — well below the morning peak of 5,409 MW recorded around 18:00 AEST. Prices have been persistently negative across the past 24 hours, bottoming at -$12.10/MWh twice during the 20:40–20:50 AEST window and again sporadically through overnight intervals. The 24-hour average sits in the -$1.50 to -$2.50/MWh band for most intervals, with only a narrow window around 17:35–17:45 AEST briefly lifting toward $0.01/MWh. This is a Sunday low-demand profile compounded by sustained overnight wind output.

The current generation mix is led by wind at 1,455 MW, brown coal at 995 MW, and gas OCGT at 136 MW, with hydro contributing a negligible 0.32 MW and solar at zero given pre-dawn conditions. Renewables are contributing 56.28% of the dispatch mix at this interval. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5035 tCO2/MWh, improved from the overnight high of 0.6415 tCO2/MWh recorded around 16:30 AEST when the renewable share dipped to 45.66% during a period of higher demand and reduced wind. Today's weather shows 95% cloud cover and 21.9 km/h winds at 19.2°C; the daily solar potential index is just 1.9, meaning solar will contribute minimally across the day while wind conditions remain the primary renewable driver through the morning.

Predispatch forecasts point to continued negative pricing for all intervals through at least 13:30 AEST (03:30 UTC), with the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC) forecast at -$2.00 to -$2.29/MWh and overnight intervals from 10:30–14:30 AEST (00:30–04:30 UTC) forecast to deepen significantly, ranging from -$3.55/MWh to as low as -$21.23/MWh in some predispatch runs. The 10:00–12:00 AEST window (00:00–02:00 UTC) consistently shows multiple predispatch runs forecasting -$11.74/MWh and -$12.10/MWh, indicating the market is pricing in a sustained oversupply condition through the Sunday midday period when solar and wind generation will be competing against suppressed weekend demand.

The only active market notice with direct VIC1 relevance is the non-conformance for unit RYANCWF1 (a Victorian wind farm) on 30 April, which is historical and not operationally live today. A Forecast LOR1 notice for Tasmania on 5 May was issued but has since been cancelled (Market Notice 144027). The MSATS system outage scheduled for 10 May and the DWGM maintenance on 5–6 May are the forward-looking system notices participants should have on their radar, but neither affects today's VIC1 dispatch. Flex load operators and battery schedulers should note the high-value negative price window forecast for the 10:00–14:00 AEST block — predispatch confidence in sub -$10/MW