Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Saturday 2 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at **$84.62/MWh** at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 944 MW. Comparing today's price to the rolling pattern across the past 24 hours, the region has traded in a roughly bimodal range — a lower band around $71–76/MWh and a higher band clustered near $85–88/MWh, with the 24-hour simple average settling around **$81/MWh**. The current interval is therefore at the upper end of today's range. The overnight period saw a brief excursion to $93.96/MWh around 12:10 AEST before easing, but no market cap events or sustained price spikes have materialised.

Generation is entirely renewable: hydro is contributing **387 MW** and wind **56 MW**, with gas OCGT at zero dispatch. Total identified generation from the mix sits at approximately 443 MW, with the balance of the 944 MW demand served via Basslink import from Victoria. Carbon intensity is **0 tCO2/MWh** with 100% renewable penetration — a position that has been sustained consistently across every recorded interval throughout today. Weather conditions are overcast (100% cloud cover) with a temperature of 13.3°C, light winds at 9 km/h, and a heating demand signal of 4.7 — consistent with a cool, calm autumn Sunday that is keeping demand moderate but not peak.

Predispatch forecasts for the next few intervals point to a moderate step down in price. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at approximately **$84.92/MWh**, then pricing eases to the **$72–74/MWh** range through the mid-morning period (08:00–11:00 AEST) before drifting back toward the low $80s through the afternoon and evening. The load window data confirms the 08:00 AEST period offers the most favourable pricing outlook of the near-term horizon, with one forecast run showing a dip to $52.10/MWh — rated "good" — though that appears an outlier relative to the consensus cluster around $72–74/MWh. Flexible demand operators and large industrial consumers should note the morning window as the clearest opportunity for load shifting today.

The most operationally relevant active market notice is the **cancellation of a Forecast LOR1** for Tasmania on 5 May 2026 (Notice 144027, issued 02:59 AEST). AEMO had flagged a potential Lack of Reserve Level 1 window of 07:30–08:00 AEST on Tuesday 5 May, with forecast capacity reserve at 561 MW against a requirement of 577 MW. That LOR1 has since been cancelled, indicating reserve conditions are no longer forecast to be deficient for that window. A separate MSATS system maintenance outage is scheduled for 10 May 2026 (20:00–00:00 AEST), which has no dispatch impact but will affect settlement system access for market participants.