Regional Outlook — SA1 — Saturday 2 May 2026
The SA1 spot price sits at -$2.18/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with demand at 1,274 MW — a low Sunday morning load profile. The price has been negative for the overwhelming majority of the past 24 hours, with only a brief excursion into positive territory between approximately 14:30 and 16:35 AEST when prices peaked at $98/MWh at 14:35 AEST before retreating sharply. Excluding that spike window, the 24-hour average has tracked in the -$2 to -$3/MWh range, reflecting persistent supply surplus conditions. The intraday low reached -$10.23/MWh twice during the midday period (22:10–23:00 UTC), consistent with maximum solar generation pressing against limited demand.
Wind is the dominant fuel type at 697.59 MW, with gas CCGT contributing 112.89 MW and gas OCGT and solar both at zero at this hour. Total metered generation sits well below demand at approximately 811 MW, implying the remainder is sourced via interconnector imports from Victoria. Renewable penetration is 86.07% at the current interval, consistent with the trend across the past several hours which has ranged between 84% and 87% since the afternoon. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0683 tCO2/MWh, down from a daytime high of 0.1681 tCO2/MWh recorded around 15:00–15:30 AEST when gas dispatch was elevated during the positive price window.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued negative pricing through the morning. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) target is forecast at -$2.01/MWh, with the 07:30 and 08:00 AEST windows similarly negative in the -$1.02 to -$2.01/MWh range. Prices are forecast to steepen from approximately 10:30 AEST (00:30 UTC) onwards, with multiple predispatch runs pointing to -$5/MWh or deeper through the 11:00–13:30 AEST window, and some runs flagging -$20/MWh at the 13:00 AEST (03:00 UTC) interval as solar generation builds. Load-shifting consumers and battery operators should note the extended negative price window forecast for mid-morning through the early afternoon — wind potential averages 33.2% today against a cloud cover forecast of 60%, suggesting wind output remains the dominant variable rather than solar.
No market notices directly affect SA1 today. The most relevant active notice is the cancellation of the TAS LOR1 condition (Notice 144027), which removes a potential constraint on Basslink flows into Victoria and by extension eases any interconnector pressure on SA. A planned MSATS outage on 10 May (Notice 144026) and a DWGM gas market maintenance window on 5–6 May (Notice 144012) are noted for forward planning but carry no same-day impact for SA traders.