Regional Outlook — QLD1 — Saturday 2 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $50.07/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 5,643 MW — a notable step down from the morning peak of $73.63/MWh at 17:35 AEST and the sustained $64–$69/MWh band that held through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. Reviewing the full 24-hour price history, the overnight trough ran from approximately 10:00–11:00 AEST (UTC+10) with multiple intervals touching $0/MWh or below, while the daytime block from 06:00 AEST onward pushed prices back into the mid-$50s to low-$70s before settling to current levels. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the mid-$40s, meaning the current price is tracking slightly above that average as evening demand holds relatively firm at 5,643 MW.

The generation mix at the latest interval (06:30 AEST) is dominated by black coal at 1,908 MW, with hydro contributing 85.7 MW and gas OCGT at a negligible 0.06 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the pre-dawn timestamp of the data. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8422 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 4.3% — a sharp contrast to the overnight period where renewables reached 24–25% and intensity fell to a daily low of around 0.659 tCO2/MWh near 13:00 AEST. The daytime renewable contribution collapsed as solar came offline around 22:00–23:00 UTC (08:00–09:00 AEST local), driving intensity back above 0.84 tCO2/MWh where it has remained flat for the past 12 hours. Today's weather outlook — 71% average cloud cover and an average solar potential of 4.7 — suggests the solar generation response through the daylight hours will be suppressed relative to clear-sky days, which will limit any significant daytime renewable penetration uplift.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target converged firmly around $51–$53/MWh across the majority of runs from 19:00 AEST onward, with the most recent run at $51.78/MWh. The 07:30 AEST target is forecast at $47.40/MWh in the latest predispatch run, suggesting a mild softening as the overnight period approaches and demand falls. Load window data reinforces this: prices are forecast to decline sharply from 08:00 AEST onward, with multiple intervals near or below $0/MWh in the 09:00–13:30 AEST window, consistent with the pattern seen in overnight trading. Demand response and flexible load operators should note strong value windows in the 09:00–14:00 AEST range based on the load window modelling.

Two market notices carry direct relevance to Queensland operations. AEMO issued a general notice (MN 144024) effective 5 May 2026 increasing the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in the QLD region from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods when QLD islanding is considered credible — a change that affects FCAS cost allocation and constraint behaviour for islanding scenarios. The QNI interconnector has also