NEM Overview — Saturday 2 May 2026

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the NEM at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania leads at $71.95/MWh with demand at 953 MW, followed by NSW at $57.51/MWh (6,442 MW) and Queensland at $51.20/MWh (5,670 MW). Victoria and SA are both in negative territory at -$2.26/MWh and -$2.23/MWh respectively, driven by strong wind output — Victoria is generating 1,455 MW of wind against total demand of 3,778 MW, producing a renewable penetration of 56%, while SA sits at 86% renewable with 698 MW of wind and minimal gas on the margin at 113 MW CCGT. The NEM-wide grid stress score of 59.7 and overall renewable penetration of 43.7% reflect this split personality between a wind-saturated south and a thermal-anchored north.

The VIC–NSW interconnector is binding at its export limit of 1,064 MW, with Victoria pushing power north into NSW. This flow is the primary mechanism suppressing Victorian prices while partially supporting NSW, and it explains the $59.77/MWh spread between the two regions. The QNI interconnector is running 663 MW south from Queensland into NSW — note that the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage has had QNI constrained under I-QN_550 since 29 April, with restoration scheduled for 02 May 1700 hrs, so confirm that constraint set has been revoked before assuming full QNI capacity is restored. The Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 170 MW from Tasmania to Victoria, contributing to downward pressure on Victorian prices despite Tasmania's own elevated spot.

NSW generation is heavily anchored by 3,675 MW of black coal with wind contributing only 278 MW and solar negligible at 55 MW on an overcast morning (100% cloud cover). Queensland's mix is similarly coal-dominated at 1,908 MW black coal with hydro providing 86 MW; no solar is generating in either region at this hour. Carbon intensity reflects this — NSW sits at 0.807 tCO2/MWh and Queensland at 0.842 tCO2/MWh, against SA's 0.068 tCO2/MWh and Tasmania's zero-intensity profile. As the morning progresses, solar uptake in NSW and Queensland (forecast max 23.6°C and 24.7°C respectively, partly cloudy) will push renewable penetration up across the NEM, though wind potential in both regions remains low today.

Two market notices are relevant to today's operations. The previously declared LOR1 for Tasmania on 5 May (0730–0800 hrs, reserve shortfall of 16 MW) has been cancelled as of 15:00 AEST 2 May, so no reserve action is required for that period. From 5 May, AEMO will also increase the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap in Queensland from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods when QLD islanding is considered credible — relevant for participants active in the FCAS market ahead of that change. MSATS will be offline 10 May 10:00–14:00 AEST for the 56.2 release; settlement and metering submissions during that window will not be available.