Carbon Forecast — Saturday 2 May 2026

NEM carbon intensity sits at a wide spread across regions as of 06:30 AEST this morning. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro (387 MW) and wind (56 MW) covering the entire load. South Australia is next at 0.07 tCO2/MWh with 86% renewables, driven by 698 MW of wind with a small gas CCGT (113 MW) backstop. Victoria sits at 0.50 tCO2/MWh with 56% renewables, where 1,455 MW of wind is running alongside 995 MW of brown coal and 136 MW of gas OCGT. Queensland and NSW are the highest-intensity regions at 0.84 and 0.81 tCO2/MWh respectively — Queensland's mix is almost entirely black coal (1,908 MW) with hydro (86 MW) providing the only renewable contribution at just 4.3% penetration, while NSW is similarly coal-dominated (3,675 MW black coal) with wind and solar together reaching only 8.3%.

The generation mix driving these numbers reflects the post-sunset, low-demand Sunday morning profile. Solar output is zero across all regions, so wind is the sole variable renewable in play. SA's wind fleet is sustaining the bulk of that state's load overnight and into the morning, keeping intensity low and stable in the 0.06–0.09 tCO2/MWh band throughout the data series. Victoria's intensity has been range-bound between 0.48 and 0.64 tCO2/MWh, with the lower end reached around 14:00–18:00 UTC (00:00–04:00 AEST) when wind penetration crept above 58%. NSW and Queensland have shown almost no variation in their overnight mixes, with coal baseload holding intensity firm near the top of the NEM range.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the green windows today are primarily a function of solar onset. Across NSW and Queensland, the earliest material improvement in intensity should appear from around 09:00–10:00 AEST as utility-scale and rooftop solar ramps into the grid, with intensity likely to ease from current 0.80–0.84 tCO2/MWh levels toward the 0.75–0.77 range by mid-afternoon — a modest improvement given the modest renewable capacity in those mixes. In Victoria, solar adds to the existing wind base and the best intensity window is likely to fall between 13:00 and 16:00 AEST, where afternoon wind and solar together could push renewables above 60% and intensity below 0.48 tCO2/MWh. SA and Tasmania are already in low-intensity territory and that is expected to persist through the day, making them the most consistent destinations for carbon-sensitive scheduling regardless of time of day.

Operators and sustainability managers shifting flexible loads — EV charging, electrolysis, or battery charging cycles — should prioritise SA and TAS continuously, and target the 12:00–16:00 AEST window in VIC for the day's best mainland opportunity. NSW and QLD low-intensity windows are shallow and brief; mid-afternoon remains the only viable slot, and even then the intensity reduction is marginal against the coal baseload floor.