Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Friday 1 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at -$2.12/MWh at 06:30 AEST, continuing an extended run of negative pricing that has persisted through most of today's overnight and morning period. The 24-hour price history tells a clear story: prices were positive and ranging between $8.69–$28.69/MWh through the morning peak (06:00–10:30 AEST) before collapsing into negative territory from roughly 10:45 AEST onward, where they have remained. The overnight trough reached as low as -$9.02/MWh. Total demand sits at 4,010 MW, well below the morning peak of approximately 5,988 MW, consistent with a Saturday load profile.

The current generation mix has wind contributing 1,325 MW and brown coal at 1,002 MW, with gas OCGT at 138 MW and hydro at a negligible 0.22 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with overnight conditions, and gas CCGT is offline. Wind is the dominant active source in this interval. Renewables are contributing 53.75% of generation at this reading, which aligns with the day's broader pattern — renewable penetration tracked below 35–40% during the morning business peak when demand was highest and brown coal was running hardest, then lifted steadily through the afternoon as demand eased. Carbon intensity sits at 0.5323 tCO2/MWh, down from a morning peak above 0.78 tCO2/MWh when the grid was under heavier load.

Predispatch forecasts are uniformly negative across all intervals through to at least 09:30 AEST, holding in the -$2.00 to -$3.55/MWh band for the next several hours before deepening slightly in the 02:00–03:30 AEST window where some intervals are forecast below -$7.25/MWh, with isolated reads to -$9.67/MWh. Weather today supports continued wind output — average wind potential is rated 9.4 for 2 May with 89% cloud cover suppressing solar all day, meaning the wind-dominated overnight mix is likely to persist well into the morning. The temperature sits at 19.6°C with a maximum of 24.1°C forecast, limiting any heating or cooling demand response.

One active market notice is relevant to Victoria directly: RYANCWF1 (Ryan Corner Wind Farm) was declared non-conforming on 30 April between 13:15–13:25 AEST for +15 MW, though this has since resolved. The more operationally significant active notice is the MSATS 56.2 system outage scheduled for 10 May 2026 between 10:00–14:00 AEST, which will affect settlements access, meter data and B2B transactions — participants should plan submissions accordingly. A Forecast LOR1 for Tasmania from 07:30–08:00 AEST on 5 May is also active, though it has no direct dispatch impact on Victoria today.