NEM Overview — Friday 1 May 2026

Spot prices are sharply divergent across the NEM at 06:30 AEST. Tasmania leads at $74.82/MWh on demand of 963 MW, Queensland sits at $64.83/MWh with 5,994 MW of load, and NSW is at $57.51/MWh on 6,700 MW. Victoria and SA are both clearing negative — -$2.12/MWh and -$2.00/MWh respectively — driven by strong overnight wind generation. Victoria is producing 1,325 MW of wind against a total demand of just over 4,010 MW, and SA is generating 776 MW of wind against 1,344 MW of demand, giving SA an 87% renewable penetration this interval. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is running at its export limit of 1,010 MW northward, and the V-SA interconnector is carrying 186 MW into Victoria from SA, consistent with SA's surplus wind position. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is binding at its export limit of 29 MW northward, constrained by the ongoing Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage (in place until 17:00 today), which continues to cap flows between the two regions and is a key driver of Queensland's price premium relative to its southern neighbours.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 37.5% this interval. Tasmania is running at 100% renewable (263 MW hydro, 45 MW wind), and VIC1 is at 53.75% renewable with carbon intensity of 0.532 tCO2/MWh as brown coal holds 1,002 MW of output alongside wind. NSW's renewable penetration is just 8.95% this interval — 4,601 MW of black coal dominates, with wind contributing 299 MW and solar 153 MW — giving the region a carbon intensity of 0.801 tCO2/MWh. Queensland is similarly coal-heavy at 1,934 MW black coal, 86 MW hydro, and negligible renewables (4.27%), with intensity at 0.842 tCO2/MWh. Solar output is zero across all regions, consistent with pre-dawn conditions.

Two active market notices require attention today. A Forecast LOR1 has been declared for Tasmania on Tuesday 5 May between 07:30–08:00, where the minimum available capacity reserve of 561 MW falls 16 MW short of the 577 MW requirement — watch for further reserve updates as the week progresses, particularly given Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is currently exporting 176 MW to Victoria. AEMO is also increasing the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap for Queensland from 200 MW to 250 MW from 5 May, during periods when QLD islanding is considered credible — a relevant consideration for participants with FCAS exposure in that region.

Today's outlook is shaped by overcast, low-wind conditions across NSW and QLD (cloud cover 93–97%, minimal solar potential) which will suppress rooftop and utility solar output through the morning. SA and Victoria are forecast to retain elevated wind potential through the day, suggesting negative or near-zero pricing in those regions may persist into the morning shoulder before demand builds. The QNI constraint lifts at 17:00 today when the Armidale–Sapphire outage is scheduled to clear — that restoration could ease Queensland's price premium in