Interconnector Watch — Friday 1 May 2026

Interconnector conditions at 06:35 AEST are being shaped by three binding constraints and a pronounced price split between the southern and northern regions of the NEM. VIC1-NSW1 (VIC-NSW interconnector) is the dominant flow, sitting at 1,010.75 MW northbound into NSW — at its export limit and binding. This is the primary driver behind the $59.66/MWh spread between VIC1 (-$2.15/MWh) and NSW1 ($57.51/MWh), with Victoria exporting at its ceiling to arbitrage that differential. NSW1-QLD1 (QNI) is also binding at its 34.25 MW export limit, flowing north into Queensland, though the magnitude is modest. The constraint set I-QN_550 remains active following restriction of the Armidale–Sapphire 8E 330 kV line, which has been on outage since 26 April and is scheduled to return by 17:00 AEST today. That network limitation is suppressing QNI's northbound capacity and contributing to QLD1 sitting at $64.65/MWh — $7.14/MWh above NSW1 — despite flows already moving in that direction.

On the southern interconnectors, Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding at -154.81 MW, flowing westbound from Victoria into South Australia and sitting hard against its import limit. Despite this, SA1 prices are at -$2.00/MWh, in lock-step with VIC1's -$2.15/MWh, indicating that the price convergence between the two regions is effectively complete at current margins. Heywood (V-SA) is flowing -222.66 MW westbound into SA at 42% of its -526.47 MW import capacity — not binding, with room to absorb further transfers should the dispatch signal require it. The combination of both Heywood and Murraylink moving power into SA is keeping that region's price anchored to Victoria's negative dispatch outcome.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing -188.66 MW southbound, meaning Tasmania is importing from Victoria. The flow is within limits — the export limit on this direction is constrained to -166.77 MW, but the current flow of -188.66 MW sits within the -358.65 MW import limit, so no binding is flagged on that side. Tasmania's spot price of $74.78/MWh is the highest in the NEM and sits well above VIC1's -$2.15/MWh, which is a notable divergence given the import flow direction — suggesting local Tasmanian conditions, likely hydro dispatch or intra-regional constraints, are driving that price independently of the interconnector position. N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) is flowing 9 MW northbound into Queensland at its 9 MW export limit but is not flagged as binding. With QNI capacity curtailed for most of the day, Directlink's marginal contribution to north–south arbitrage remains minimal. Traders should watch for QNI constraint release around 17:00 AEST, which could shift the QLD1–NSW1 spread and alter northbound flow dynamics heading into the evening peak.