Commodity Demand — VIC1 — Friday 1 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at -$2.15/MWh with demand at 4,021 MW as of 06:35 AEST — a Saturday morning trough that has kept prices negative or near zero for the past nine hours. The demand profile through today traces a clear Saturday pattern: the overnight minimum bottomed around 3,350–3,500 MW between 12:00–14:00 AEST, prices pushed as low as -$9.02/MWh during those intervals, and the market has been in continuous surplus conditions since approximately 21:35 AEST last night when prices first turned negative. The current 4,021 MW reading represents demand recovering gradually from that overnight floor, but it remains around 1,800–1,900 MW below the weekday morning peaks of approximately 5,900 MW seen at the 17:35–18:00 AEST period yesterday.

The price sensitivity to demand today is stark when comparing the two distinct regimes in the data. During the morning ramp from 06:20–10:00 AEST yesterday, prices broke sharply positive — touching $28.69/MWh multiple times as demand climbed through the 5,400–5,900 MW range — before softening back toward zero and then negative as midday solar compressed net demand. The evening demand peak around 5,950 MW at 18:00 AEST corresponded with sustained sub-zero prices, a function of the current generation mix: wind is producing 1,325 MW and brown coal is running at 1,002 MW, providing a combined baseload floor that exceeds low Saturday demand. With 100% cloud cover and zero solar generation right now, there is no solar-driven compression of net demand to extend today's negative price conditions into the afternoon — that dynamic was entirely absent from the overnight price formation.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours (21:00 and 21:30 UTC) are locked in at -$2.09 to -$2.29/MWh across all forecast runs, indicating the market expects conditions to remain in mild surplus through at least the early morning. Prices are then forecast at -$1.00 to -$2.00/MWh around the 08:00 AEST half-hour, suggesting the market anticipates a gradual tightening as Saturday demand builds toward a mid-morning peak. The critical price inflection for today will occur when demand climbs through approximately 5,200–5,400 MW — the threshold where prices began rising toward $8–$29/MWh in yesterday's morning ramp. On a Saturday, that level is typically reached later and more slowly, and with overcast conditions limiting solar throughout the day (average solar potential forecast at just 0.7 for 2 May), the usual midday suppression from rooftop PV will be muted, potentially keeping prices slightly firmer through the 10:00–14:00 AEST window than a clear-sky weekend day would produce.

Demand-side factors from current market notices are limited in their Victorian relevance. The active QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550, in place until 17:00 AEST today) caps northbound NSW-QLD flows but does not directly constrain Victorian dispatch. No Victorian-specific reserve or constraint notices are active. The MSATS system outage scheduled for 10 May has no real-time market impact. The net demand outlook for today points to a mild positive price period developing