Commodity Demand — TAS1 — Friday 1 May 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $74.78/MWh with total demand at 973 MW as of 06:35 AEST, up from a session low around 800 MW recorded in the early hours (circa 13:10 UTC). The price-demand relationship across today's data is instructive: when demand climbed to its intraday peak of 1,168 MW around 17:50–18:00 AEST, prices locked into a sustained band of $88.14/MWh that held for several hours without interruption, indicating that level is a clear price step in Tasmania's supply stack. As demand has eased back toward the high 900s MW this morning, price has dropped commensurately into the mid-$70s, confirming a reasonably tight demand-price correlation in the current dispatch environment. Generation is supplied by hydro (263 MW) and wind (45 MW), with gas OCGT at zero, consistent with demand sitting below the threshold that would require additional dispatch.
The forecast for the next two trading intervals (07:00 and 07:30 AEST) sits at approximately $74.67–$74.84/MWh, implying the market expects demand to remain in its current range without triggering a step up in the stack. Demand will likely build through the morning as residential and commercial load rises on a Saturday — today's maximum temperature is forecast at 23.8°C against a current 11.9°C, with heating demand active now but easing through the day. The overnight-to-morning pattern seen in the price history shows demand typically pushes back above 1,050–1,100 MW by the equivalent of mid-morning AEST, and if that trajectory repeats, a return toward the $85–$88/MWh band is probable without any supply-side change.
The active LOR1 notice for Tasmania on 5 May (07:30–08:00 AEST) is the key forward risk flag. AEMO's ST PASA shows forecast reserve of 561 MW against a requirement of 577 MW — a 16 MW shortfall — pointing to tight capacity conditions next Tuesday morning when demand will again be building through the winter shoulder period. Traders holding exposure through that window should note that Tasmania's relatively shallow supply stack means price can move sharply on small demand increments once hydro headroom tightens. For today, absent a significant demand surprise, the $74–$76/MWh range is where spot is anchored, with the $88/MWh level the next material resistance point if demand approaches 1,100 MW.