Commodity Demand — SA1 — Friday 1 May 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at -$2/MWh at 6:35 AEST with demand at 1,364 MW — well into negative price territory that has characterised the region for most of today's overnight period. Wind is generating 776 MW against gas CCGT at 115 MW, with solar at zero given the late hour, and 100% cloud cover overhead. The demand trough today bottomed around 930–950 MW between 12:30–12:55 AEST, when prices deepened to -$6.90 to -$8.98/MWh, illustrating the sharp inverse relationship between SA's low overnight demand and price. As demand climbed through the morning shoulder — reaching a daily peak of around 1,814 MW near 7:50–7:55 AEST — prices moved decisively positive, touching $44.49/MWh at 7:00 AEST local as the morning ramp absorbed available supply. That positive price window was narrow, confined broadly to 6:50–9:30 AEST before solar entry and easing demand pushed prices back toward zero and then negative again through the midday and afternoon periods.

From roughly 11:00 AEST onward, demand has been sitting in the 1,500–1,650 MW range with prices hugging -$0.09 to -$3/MWh — a tight band that reflects adequate supply at this moderate weekend demand level. The current 1,364 MW at 6:35 AEST represents a slight softening from the 1,340–1,360 MW range that has persisted through the post-18:00 AEST evening, with prices locked in a remarkably stable -$2.20 to -$2.26/MWh corridor for over two hours. Forecast prices for the 7:00–8:30 AEST slots (21:00–22:30 UTC) sit between -$1.81 and -$2.23/MWh, indicating the market expects demand and the generation balance to remain essentially unchanged through the rest of tonight.

The price-demand relationship today splits into three distinct regimes. Negative prices dominate whenever demand sits below approximately 1,600 MW and wind generation is sufficient — which accounts for the bulk of the 24-hour period on this mild autumn Saturday. The brief positive-price window from 6:50–9:30 AEST aligned directly with the morning demand ramp lifting load above 1,600 MW toward the 1,814 MW peak, a threshold where wind alone was insufficient and gas CCGT dispatch priced the marginal interval. The third regime — the very deep negatives of -$5 to -$9/MWh that occurred between midnight and 3:00 AEST — corresponded with demand in the 930–1,060 MW range, the lowest of the day, where oversupply conditions became most pronounced. Overnight forecast windows extending into 2 May (10:30–12:30 AEST) show prices deepening further to -$3 to -$10/MWh as demand is expected to again trough well below 1,000 MW — consistent with the pattern observed tonight.

Today's weather is suppressing both extremes of demand: with a maximum of 21.8°C forecast and zero heating or cooling load recorded at present, SA avoids both the summer air-conditioning peak and winter heating peak. The Saturday load profile reinforces this flatness, and the QNI interconnector constraint (