Commodity Demand — QLD1 — Friday 1 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $64.65/MWh with total demand at 5,939.75 MW as of 6:35 AEST, a level consistent with the overnight trough-to-morning recovery pattern visible across today's data. Demand troughed near 4,917 MW around 12:50 AEST before climbing steadily through the pre-dawn hours, peaking at 7,774.87 MW at 18:00 AEST during the morning demand surge (15:00–18:30 AEST local equivalent). That morning peak drove prices into the $85–$103/MWh range, with a notable spike to $231.70/MWh at 22:10 AEST (08:10 local) — an outlier driven by tight supply margins against sustained demand above 7,600 MW. Prices have since moderated as demand has retreated from that peak, tracking the $55–$65/MWh band through the afternoon and into the current evening period.

The demand-price relationship today has been tightly coupled. Each 500–800 MW step-up in demand from around 6,000 MW toward the 7,600–7,700 MW morning peak corresponded to price escalation from the $55–$65/MWh base into the $80–$103/MWh band, confirming steepening marginal cost in that demand range. The midday pullback in demand below 6,800 MW allowed prices to ease, though a secondary elevation to $144–$177/MWh occurred between 21:35–22:10 AEST (07:35–08:10 local) when demand stabilised around 6,750–6,770 MW — suggesting a supply-side constraint or rebidding event rather than a pure demand-driven move. A QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550 active since 29 April due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage) remains in force until 17:00 today, which tightens the Queensland supply stack and increases sensitivity to demand fluctuations in the 6,500–7,000 MW range.

The near-term demand trajectory points downward for the remainder of today. Being a Saturday, demand is not expected to rebuild to the 7,000+ MW levels seen during this morning's peak. Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST period (21:00 UTC target) sit at $64.65/MWh across multiple AEMO dispatch intervals, and the 07:30 AEST window is forecast at $55.53–$56.36/MWh, consistent with demand softening as the evening progresses. Load window data confirms the overnight period from 09:00–12:30 AEST (23:00–02:30 UTC) offers spot prices in the $22–$37/MWh range, with the deep trough between 10:00–13:30 AEST (00:00–03:30 UTC) forecast at $0–$12/MWh and several intervals showing negative prices, reflecting the combination of low Saturday overnight demand and baseload inflexibility.

One structural factor shaping today's price floor: black coal is providing 1,934 MW against a current demand of 5,940 MW, with hydro at 86 MW and solar at zero given 97% cloud cover. The generation mix offers minimal flexibility at the margin overnight, but with Saturday demand unlikely