Carbon Forecast — Friday 1 May 2026

NEM carbon intensity at 06:30 AEST sits at sharply contrasting levels across regions. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — hydro (263 MW) and wind (45 MW) covering the entire load. South Australia is at 0.06 tCO2/MWh with 87% renewable penetration, wind delivering 776 MW as the dominant source and a small gas CCGT unit (115 MW) providing the remainder. Victoria sits at 0.53 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 54% — wind is producing 1,325 MW, but brown coal (1,002 MW) and gas OCGT (138 MW) underpin the balance. NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions at 0.80 and 0.84 tCO2/MWh respectively; NSW generation is dominated by black coal at 4,601 MW with wind (299 MW) and solar (153 MW) contributing just 9% of the mix, while Queensland runs almost entirely on black coal (1,934 MW) at 4.3% renewables — solar generation has dropped to zero as the data reflects the post-sunset period.

The trajectory through today reflects the Saturday autumn profile — lower overall demand than weekday peaks, but the carbon signal will move primarily with the solar cycle. In NSW and Queensland, intensity is unlikely to improve materially until rooftop and utility solar ramps from around 07:00–08:00 AEST, with midday likely to represent the lowest-intensity window in both regions; the overnight and early morning data show NSW intensity rising to as high as 0.86 tCO2/MWh when solar was absent, and QLD touched 0.85 tCO2/MWh. SA and Victoria have benefited from strong overnight wind, keeping intensity well below their coal-heavy counterparts, and that pattern is expected to persist through the morning assuming wind output holds.

For carbon-sensitive loads — demand response, EV charging schedules, battery charging decisions, or flexible industrial loads — the clearest low-carbon windows today are: SA and Tasmania continuously (SA has held below 0.10 tCO2/MWh across the full dataset); Victoria from midday onward, where renewable penetration has been climbing toward 54% and wind is steady; and NSW between approximately 10:00–16:00 AEST when solar contribution historically lifts renewable share above 15–20% on clear autumn days. Queensland offers the narrowest green window given its structural reliance on coal and minimal utility solar output visible in this dataset — any midday improvement will be modest. Operators scheduling interruptible loads in NSW or QLD should target the solar window and avoid the 06:00–09:00 AEST shoulder period where intensity peaks.