Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Thursday 30 April 2026

The spot price in Victoria sits at $0/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 4,672 MW — a relatively subdued early-Friday load level. The overnight price profile tells the full story: prices tracked deep negative territory from roughly 13:00 through to 06:00 AEST, bottoming at -$12.10/MWh in the 13:00–14:30 AEST window, before transitioning back toward zero as the morning ramp approaches. The 24-hour range has been wide — from a morning peak of $81.50/MWh during the 17:40 AEST interval through to -$12.10/MWh overnight — reflecting the classic autumn shoulder demand profile compounded by overnight supply surplus.

The current generation mix shows wind at 1,415 MW and brown coal at 1,200 MW as the two dominant sources, with gas OCGT contributing 137 MW, hydro a negligible 0.3 MW, and solar at zero (pre-sunrise). Renewable penetration sits at 51.41% as of the latest interval, consistent with the 50–53% range sustained across much of the overnight and early morning period. Carbon intensity is 0.5642 tCO2/MWh, improved from the 0.85–0.89 tCO2/MWh peak recorded during the morning demand ramp between 17:00 and 19:00 AEST, when brown coal and gas carried a heavier share of the load. Today's weather outlook — a max of 25.9°C, average wind potential of 7.5 and cloud cover at 59% — suggests moderate solar output and sustained wind generation through the day, which will limit upward price pressure during midday hours.

Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price recovery this morning. The 07:00 AEST target interval is forecast at approximately $2.11–$26.80/MWh across the most recent predispatch runs, with the 07:30 AEST interval forecast around $30/MWh. This is consistent with the standard autumn morning demand ramp as residential and commercial loads increase and solar generation remains limited in the early hours. Traders should watch the 17:00–19:00 AEST window closely — this is where the price history shows the most sustained elevated pricing, though the moderate temperature forecast (max 25.9°C, no cooling demand flagged) reduces the risk of significant price spikes compared to summer conditions.

One active VIC1 notice warrants attention: AEMO declared wind unit RYANCWF1 non-conforming on 30 April between 13:15 and 13:25 AEST for a 15 MW deviation under NER clause 3.8.23. The constraint NC-V_RYANCWF1 remains listed as active. The impact on system conditions appears contained given the small magnitude, but participants with wind exposure in Victoria should confirm unit status. There is also an active QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550) due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage, scheduled to run until 17:00 AEST on 2 May — this constrains NSW–QLD flows and can indirectly influence Victorian pricing dynamics through bidstack positioning on the VIC–NSW interconnector.