Commodity Demand — VIC1 — Thursday 30 April 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $29.11/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 4,749 MW — a sharp recovery from the negative pricing that dominated from around 22:00 last night through to 05:30 this morning. That overnight trough saw demand bottom out near 3,787 MW at 14:50 AEST (04:50 UTC), with prices reaching as low as -$12.10/MWh as supply exceeded demand across the light-load hours. The price response to rising demand this morning is already clear: as demand climbed from roughly 4,500 MW through 5,000 MW during the pre-dawn ramp, prices moved from negative territory through zero and are now tracking just above $29/MWh.
The day's demand trajectory points to a familiar autumn weekday shape. The morning peak is building, with forecasts for the 07:00–08:00 AEST trading periods showing prices in the $23–$28/MWh range — broadly consistent with where the spot is trading now. Wind is generating 1,415 MW and brown coal 1,200 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 138 MW and solar at zero in the pre-dawn period. As solar ramps through the morning, midday demand is likely to ease and price pressure should soften, with the typical midday trough expected to push prices back toward single digits or negative again given today's cloud cover forecast of 59% and moderate wind averaging 7.5 km/h. Today's max temperature of 25.9°C removes significant heating or cooling load, keeping overall demand constrained relative to winter profiles.
The afternoon and evening ramp is the key price risk for today. As solar output fades and residential demand rises post-17:00 AEST, demand will climb back toward the 5,000–6,000 MW range seen during yesterday's morning peak — a zone where prices responded sharply, touching $73–$82/MWh between 17:30 and 18:00 UTC (03:30–04:00 AEST). Forecast prices for the 07:30 AEST period (21:30 UTC) cluster around $26–$32/MWh across multiple forecast runs, suggesting the market anticipates a moderate evening peak without extreme stress. There are no active Victorian network notices that would constrain supply or distort demand-side behaviour today, though the VIC1 non-conformance for RYANCWF1 (a 15 MW wind deviation on 30 April) is still listed as active and warrants monitoring if wind dispatch tightens.