Commodity Demand — TAS1 — Thursday 30 April 2026

Tasmania sits at 86.14 $/MWh on 1,031 MW at 06:30 AEST, demand having climbed steadily from a trough of around 898 MW at 04:00–04:15 AEST as the morning residential load builds. The price-demand relationship across today's trading record is clear: demand in the 920–940 MW range through the mid-afternoon corresponded with prices in the 72–79 $/MWh band, while the morning ramp from 1,035 MW to a peak of 1,232 MW between 06:00 and 08:00 AEST drove prices from ~83 $/MWh up to a session high of 148.47 $/MWh at 17:30 AEST (06:30 UTC). The morning peak demand bracket of 1,200–1,232 MW is the clear price pressure point, with spot repeatedly printing 106–140 $/MWh across that window before easing as demand rolled off through mid-morning.

Demand is now on its typical Friday morning ascent — up roughly 130 MW in the past 90 minutes from the overnight trough — and the trajectory points toward a repeat of the 1,100–1,230 MW range through the 07:00–10:00 AEST window. Today's weather profile (14.2°C current, 100% cloud cover, heating demand index at 3.8) supports sustained heating load as Hobart enters the autumn cool period, with a forecast maximum of 25°C providing some relief against extended peak levels later in the day. The overnight low tonight is 13.3°C, consistent with moderate but persistent heating load across the full period.

Forward price forecasts for the 07:00–09:00 AEST window (21:00–23:00 UTC) are clustered in the 74–77 $/MWh range — a notable discount to the ~86 $/MWh currently clearing — suggesting the market expects demand to ease from the morning peak rather than sustain or extend it. This is consistent with the pattern observed in the price history: once demand falls below ~1,080 MW in off-peak periods, prices settle into the 71–75 $/MWh band. The generation mix shows 75.32 MW hydro and 46.55 MW wind at the last dispatch interval, with gas OCGT on zero output, indicating no marginal cost pressure from thermal plant at current demand levels.

The key risk to the price-benign forward outlook is the morning commercial and industrial load ramp between 07:30 and 09:30 AEST, where demand has consistently breached 1,200 MW in the history and driven prices above 100 $/MWh. Flexibility-constrained buyers with exposure to spot should note that 17:30 AEST delivery carries the highest intra-day price risk given the demonstrated sensitivity at that demand level. Basslink flows are not reported in the current data, so interconnector contribution to Tasmania's supply balance at peak remains the key unobserved variable for this morning's price outlook.