Commodity Demand — QLD1 — Thursday 30 April 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $76.06/MWh with demand at 6,655 MW as of 06:30 AEST, having pulled back from the overnight peak of around 7,940 MW recorded near 18:00 AEST. That morning peak drove prices into the $73–$85/MWh band, with the intraday high of $94.99/MWh printed at 23:10 AEST during the midday demand trough recovery. The demand-price relationship through the day is textbook: the corridor between 5,700–5,800 MW (roughly 02:00–04:00 AEST) produced prices in the $52–$55/MWh range, the early morning ramp from 5,000 MW toward 6,000 MW between roughly 12:30–14:30 AEST compressed prices to near-floor levels of $37–$40/MWh as low-cost supply was ample, and the evening build above 7,500 MW consistently pushed prices into the $73–$85/MWh range. The extreme low overnight — prices touching negative and sub-$1/MWh between 09:30–10:30 AEST — coincided with demand sitting around 4,900–5,200 MW, the weakest point of the 24-hour cycle.

A notable interconnector constraint is in force: the QNI is operating under constraint set I-QN_550 due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage, which remains in place until 17:00 AEST 2 May. This limits southbound flows and tightens the effective supply stack available to Queensland, contributing to the firmer price floor during high-demand periods. The most recent forecast (06:32 AEST) targets $74.24/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval and $73.63/MWh for 07:30 AEST, consistent with current demand levels and the constrained interconnector position.

Today's demand trajectory on a Friday in early autumn follows a familiar pattern: demand is currently rebuilding from the overnight trough and is expected to reach a morning business peak of approximately 7,000–7,500 MW between 08:00–10:00 AEST before easing through the middle of the day, then lifting again into an evening peak. With maximum temperatures forecast at 23.8°C and modest heating demand (1.9 units) with no cooling requirement, there is limited weather-driven demand amplification today. That constrains the probability of a price spike into the $90+/MWh territory seen at midday, absent a generation trip or further interconnector tightening. Load windows targeting the 08:00–10:00 AEST period show expected prices in the $37–$42/MWh range — the lowest cost window of the business day — flagged as excellent quality by the forward curve, reflecting the overnight demand trough pricing flowing into near-term dispatch.