Carbon Forecast — Thursday 30 April 2026

Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro at 75 MW and wind at 47 MW covering the entire load. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.05 tCO2/MWh, with wind supplying 988 MW and a small CCGT unit at 114 MW accounting for the residual, putting renewable penetration at 90%. Both states present the lowest-intensity windows on the NEM right now and, given the time of day (06:00 AEST, pre-dawn), there is no solar contribution anywhere in the network — these readings are entirely wind and hydro driven.

Victoria sits at 0.56 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 51%, driven primarily by 1,415 MW of wind. Brown coal contributes 1,200 MW and gas OCGT adds 138 MW, which constrains intensity at this level. Queensland is the highest-intensity region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 4% — black coal accounts for 2,313 MW of a generation stack that includes only 87 MW of hydro and a negligible 0.06 MW of gas OCGT, with no solar or wind material to the mix. NSW is similarly coal-dominated at 0.83 tCO2/MWh: black coal runs at 5,095 MW with wind at 179 MW and solar at 143 MW providing just 6% renewable penetration.

As sunrise progresses through the AEST morning, solar generation will begin ramping across NSW, VIC, QLD, and SA from approximately 07:00–08:00 AEST onwards. Based on today's data trajectory, SA saw its lowest intensity readings in the 13:00–15:00 AEST window (reaching 0.045 tCO2/MWh at 90%+ renewables), and VIC reached its lowest around 14:00–18:00 AEST (0.55–0.57 tCO2/MWh, 51–53% renewables). NSW intensity nudged as low as 0.76 tCO2/MWh around 09:00–09:30 AEST as solar built through the morning, before climbing back above 0.83 tCO2/MWh through the middle of the day — an unusual pattern driven by coal generation holding firm rather than backing off as solar arrived.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA and TAS offer the best conditions across the full day. In SA, the midday-to-mid-afternoon window (approximately 12:00–16:00 AEST) consistently delivers sub-0.06 tCO2/MWh intensity as solar and wind combine. NSW and QLD offer no clear green window today given the coal-heavy baseload, though NSW sees a modest intensity dip in the 09:00–10:00 AEST window. Loads that have flexibility to shift to SA or TAS sourcing, or to time consumption to the SA solar peak, will see the largest carbon benefit today.