Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Wednesday 29 April 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $8.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 4,924 MW — a sharp contrast to the evening peak that saw prices touching $123.90/MWh around 08:15–09:30 AEST and sustained readings above $70/MWh through the morning trading period. The overnight trough was even more pronounced, with prices turning negative and reaching as low as -$0.10/MWh across a sustained window from approximately 03:25–04:15 AEST, driven by supply exceeding demand during off-peak hours. The current generation mix comprises brown coal at 1,223 MW, wind at 1,156 MW, gas OCGT at 138 MW, and hydro at 17 MW, with solar at zero given the early hour. Renewable penetration stands at 46.28% of the current dispatch mix, while carbon intensity sits at 0.6242 tCO2/MWh — well down from the 1.05–1.10 tCO2/MWh readings observed during the high-demand morning period when brown coal was carrying a larger share of the load.

The predispatch curve signals a clear step-up from current near-floor pricing. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at approximately $33/MWh, with convergence across multiple predispatch runs pointing to $32–$34/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) is forecast markedly higher at $60–$67/MWh, reflecting the morning demand ramp as Victoria moves into peak residential and commercial load. Traders positioning for the morning peak should note this step-change is consistent across the most recent predispatch runs and is not an outlier. Load window analysis confirms that the cheapest consumption opportunities remain in the 08:30–11:00 AEST window, where multiple intervals are forecast at or below zero, before the solar contribution fades through the afternoon.

Today's weather profile for Melbourne presents a mild day with a maximum of 24.2°C, 75% average cloud cover, and limited solar potential (avg 1.3), meaning rooftop PV output will be constrained relative to a clear autumn day. Wind potential lifts slightly to 4.7 on average, which is broadly supportive of the 1,156 MW currently on-system. Heating demand is minimal at this time of morning with a current temperature of 15.6°C, but a modest heating load is expected as the overnight minimum plays out. This combination of subdued solar and moderate wind will likely sustain brown coal as a significant dispatch component throughout the day.

The active market notices with direct relevance to Victorian operations are limited. The QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550, active from 17:40 29/04 under Market Notice 144013) caps NSW–QLD transfer capacity while the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line remains out of service until 02/05, but this primarily constrains NEM flows north of Victoria and its impact on VIC1 pricing is indirect. The QLD1 lightning reclassification notices (144016/144019) have been cancelled and pose no ongoing risk to Victorian dispatch. The MT PASA notice of 28 April confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified across the NEM outlook period, and the DWGM planned maintenance on 5–6 May is a gas