Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Wednesday 29 April 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $95.55/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand at 1,122.71 MW. Today's price profile has been volatile — overnnight intervals held in the $85–$100/MWh range before a sustained morning peak between 06:35 and 08:45 AEST pushed prices to $138–$140/MWh, reflecting the characteristic autumn morning ramp as heating demand builds into a 10.4°C start with 100% cloud cover and no solar contribution. Prices retreated through the mid-morning to the $104–$107/MWh band before a secondary midday spike to $124–$129/MWh, and have since eased back toward the mid-$90s as demand tracks down from a 1,271 MW intraday peak.
The generation mix at the most recent interval (06:15 AEST) comprises hydro at 292.76 MW and wind at 67.77 MW, with gas OCGT at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh — a position maintained consistently across every recorded interval today. Total metered output of approximately 361 MW against a demand of 1,122.71 MW indicates Tasmania is a net importer across Basslink, which is the normal operating posture when hydro dispatch is conservative.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour show a sharp upward revision, with the most recent runs placing the RRP at $142–$143/MWh — a near-50% step up from the current interval. This is the key trading signal for the morning session; the 07:00 AEST period has consistently attracted elevated forecasts across multiple dispatch runs, suggesting constrained Basslink import capacity or a scheduled hydro dispatch constraint is expected to drive the next price event. The 07:30 AEST period (08:30 AEST local) forecasts ease back toward $87–$91/MWh, indicating the spike is expected to be short-lived. Load windows from 08:00 AEST onward project prices drifting into the $65–$84/MWh range through the early hours of tomorrow morning AEST, with the overnight trough the most price-favourable window for flexible loads.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 today. The most operationally relevant active notice is the QNI interconnector restriction (Notice 144013) limiting NSW1–QLD1 transfer capacity until 02 May due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage — this has no direct TAS1 impact but tightens the broader NEM supply picture and reinforces Victoria's role as the primary import source for Tasmania via Basslink. The MT PASA reserve notice (144008) confirms no low reserve conditions are identified across the NEM for the outlook period. Weather across the remainder of the week stays overcast with minimal solar potential and light winds, keeping hydro and Basslink as the primary supply levers for TAS1 through to at least 04 May.