Regional Outlook — SA1 — Wednesday 29 April 2026

The South Australia spot price sits at $8.45/MWh at 06:05 AEST, with total demand at 1,468 MW. That reads as a sharp normalisation from the early-morning peak period: prices surged into the $100–170/MWh range between roughly 16:00 and 19:00 AEST as demand climbed toward a daily high of approximately 1,794 MW, then collapsed through the afternoon and into negative territory from around 02:00–04:00 AEST as low overnight demand met sustained wind output. The 24-hour price profile is classic SA: steep morning and evening ramps bracketing extended near-zero or sub-zero midday and overnight intervals. Generation at the 06:05 interval is composed of 651 MW from wind and 116 MW from gas CCGT, with solar at zero (pre-dawn). Renewable penetration stands at 84.85% and carbon intensity sits at 0.0742 tCO2/MWh — well below the overnight range of 0.13–0.34 tCO2/MWh that prevailed during the morning ramp when gas CCGT was carrying a heavier share of the mix. The OCGT fleet is currently offline.

Today's weather outlook is relevant to the shape: 100% cloud cover is present at 06:05 AEST with a wind speed of 14.7 km/h, and the daily solar potential is rated just 13.8 on a 0–100 scale, indicating a partly cloudy day ahead with a maximum of 26.3°C. Wind potential drops sharply (average 2.7 for the day) compared to the overnight conditions driving current output, meaning the wind contribution is likely to soften through the morning. As solar ramps from mid-morning, the overall renewable share should hold up, but the transition creates a window where gas dispatch may increase to manage the crossover, consistent with the predispatch trajectory.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining suppressed in the $12–15/MWh range through the 07:00 AEST half-hour, then lifting moderately toward $65/MWh at the 08:00 AEST half-hour as the morning demand ramp firms. This uptick at 08:00 AEST (21:30 UTC) aligns with SA's typical morning peak, and the spread across forecast runs for that interval — ranging from $14 to $67/MWh — signals meaningful uncertainty, most likely driven by wind output variability as the low-wind day evolves. The afternoon solar window should compress prices again through 13:00–18:00 AEST, where forecasts and load windows consistently show negative to near-zero prices, before the evening ramp reasserts. Flexible loads and battery operators should note the deep negative price windows forecast from 09:30–16:00 AEST (00:00–07:00 UTC), with some predispatch runs showing prices as low as -$28/MWh.

The one SA-relevant active market notice is the now-cancelled Forecast LOR1 condition (Market Notice 144006/144007) that was declared for 18:00–20:30 AEST on 28 April — the period directly corresponding to the $95–127/MWh price cluster visible in the 06:35–07:25 UTC portion of the price history. That reserve concern has been resolved. No active notices affect SA network infrastructure today; the two contingency