NEM Overview — Wednesday 29 April 2026

Tasmania leads spot prices at $102.02/MWh with demand of 1,115 MW, while Victoria sits at just $8.95/MWh against 4,924 MW of load — a spread of over $93/MWh between adjacent regions. NSW is at $79/MWh (7,651 MW) and Queensland at $72.83/MWh (6,608 MW), with SA mid-pack at $30.73/MWh (1,469 MW). The Victoria-Tasmania price gap is directly linked to constrained interconnector flows: Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is binding at -149 MW export limit, preventing Tasmania from fully arbitraging its hydro surplus into the Victorian market. Meanwhile, VIC1-NSW1 is binding at 1,031 MW, transmitting Victoria's wind surplus northward and suppressing Victorian prices.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 36.8% per the gridIQ score. SA is the standout at 84.85% renewable with 651 MW of wind and negligible gas dispatch, priced at $30.73/MWh and importing ~380 MW from Victoria via V-SA (binding at export limit). Victoria's mix is 46.28% renewable, with wind at 1,156 MW alongside 1,223 MW of brown coal and 138 MW of gas OCGT. NSW is carrying the largest coal volume on the NEM at 4,950 MW of black coal, resulting in a carbon intensity of 0.84 tCO2/MWh and only 4.78% renewable penetration. Queensland mirrors that profile at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with black coal at 2,282 MW and renewables at 3.65%. Tasmania runs at zero carbon intensity, fully covered by 293 MW of hydro and 68 MW of wind.

The most operationally significant active notice is the QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550), in place due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage scheduled through 1700 hrs on 2 May. QNI is binding at its import limit of -493 MW, meaning the NSW–Queensland flow is fully constrained — this is contributing to Queensland's elevated price relative to Victoria despite both being net generation-surplus regions at different times of day. The earlier lightning-related reclassification of the Tumoulin–Woree and Chalumbin–Turkinje lines in QLD as a credible contingency event has since been cancelled, with AEMO confirming no further lightning activity in the vicinity.

Looking ahead today, solar will be absent overnight across all regions and will only partially recover through the morning given residual cloud cover — NSW forecasts a maximum solar potential of 19.2 for 30 April with cloud cover easing, while Victoria stays largely cloudy (75% average cover) keeping solar near zero. Wind output is forecast to remain moderate in Victoria and SA through the day. With QNI remaining constrained until 2 May and the evening demand ramp approaching, watch for price pressure in Queensland and NSW during the 17:00–20:00 AEST window. The grid stress score of 52.3 and price stability score of 34.3 reflect the current interconnector binding conditions — conditions that are unlikely to ease materially until the Armidale–Sapphire outage clears.