Commodity Demand — TAS1 — Wednesday 29 April 2026

Tasmania sits at 1,122.71 MW and $95.55/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand climbing steadily from a session trough of around 843 MW reached at 01:45 AEST — a recovery of nearly 280 MW over five hours that has dragged prices off their lows in tandem. The price-demand relationship across today's history is clear: the overnight trough in the low-to-mid 800s MW corresponded to prices as soft as $73–$78/MWh, while today's morning climb through 1,100 MW has pushed the spot back toward the mid-$90s. The most price-elastic episode on the day occurred during the morning ramp between 16:35 and 17:45 AEST (06:35–07:45 UTC), when demand surged from ~1,082 MW to ~1,258 MW and prices jumped sharply to $138–$140/MWh — a 40% price spike on roughly a 16% lift in demand, indicating tight marginal supply conditions at that load level.

The near-term forecast points to moderation. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is consistently priced in the $88–$95/MWh range across multiple forecast runs, consistent with demand easing from current levels as the morning peak rolls off. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC), however, is a notable outlier: the two most recent forecast runs price that interval at $142.01/MWh and $142.60/MWh respectively, materially above earlier estimates of $97–$115/MWh. This suggests the dispatch engine is anticipating a secondary demand lift — likely another morning heating ramp given today's 10.4°C temperature and 100% cloud cover — that could push demand back above the 1,200 MW threshold where prices proved sensitive this morning.

Generation is currently sourced entirely from hydro (292.76 MW) and wind (67.77 MW), with gas OCGT offline at zero. The renewable penetration of 100% and zero carbon intensity reflects Tasmania's normal operating posture, but also signals limited headroom from thermal backup if the interconnector flow profile tightens during a demand spike. With today's weather forecast showing maximum temperature of 22°C and full cloud cover all day, heating demand is active (7.6 units) and solar potential is zero, meaning demand will track meteorological and diurnal patterns without a rooftop solar offset during daylight hours — a factor that underpins the elevated 07:30 AEST forecast price.

Traders should watch the 07:30 AEST dispatch interval closely: if demand tracks back toward 1,250+ MW as the forecast implies, the $140/MWh level seen during this morning's peak is again in scope. Conversely, if the morning ramp is modest, the 07:00 AEST forecast cluster around $88–$95/MWh suggests prices will consolidate at current levels before gradually declining through the midday trough period, where forward load window prices drop into the $65–$76/MWh range from 11:00 AEST onwards.