Commodity Demand — SA1 — Wednesday 29 April 2026
South Australia sits at $8.45/MWh with demand at 1,468 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That price is essentially at floor relative to today's trading context — demand has climbed around 800 MW off its overnight trough (below 600 MW with repeated negative prices between roughly 23:30 and 06:00 AEST), and yet the spot price remains suppressed, reflecting 651 MW of wind output and 84.85% renewable penetration holding marginal cost down. The generation mix is currently wind at 651 MW and gas CCGT at 116 MW, with solar contributing nothing at this pre-dawn hour and gas OCGT offline.
The price-demand relationship today shows a clear two-regime structure. Through the overnight minimum — demand below 900 MW from roughly midnight to 03:30 AEST — spot prices printed negative or near-zero across extended runs, with the floor around -$4.62/MWh. As demand recovered through the pre-dawn ramp, prices lifted only modestly into the $15–35/MWh range, confirming that ample supply capacity is absorbing the load increase without material stack pressure. The morning peak between 17:30 and 19:30 AEST produced prices in the $100–170/MWh range with demand reaching 1,730–1,795 MW, illustrating how quickly SA's relatively compact stack exhausts low-cost capacity when demand peaks in the absence of solar.
The forecast trajectory is the key variable for today's outlook. The near-term AEMO forecast for 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) sits at $12.82/MWh — consistent with current conditions as demand holds in the 1,400–1,500 MW range. The step-up in forecast prices emerges at the 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval, where the most recent run prices at $64.96/MWh, a sharp jump that aligns with the approach of the morning demand ramp. Today's weather outlook — 100% cloud cover currently, a maximum of 26.3°C, and low wind potential averaging 2.7 for the day — means solar generation will be limited and the evening peak will again be met primarily by dispatchable capacity. The overnight-to-morning demand arc historically pushes SA into the $75–150/MWh band by 17:00–19:30 AEST, and today's mild temperature profile moderates but does not eliminate that risk.
Traders should note that the LOR1 reserve notice for SA issued for 18:00–20:30 AEST on 28 April has now been cancelled, and MTPASA identifies no Low Reserve Conditions currently. There are no SA-specific constraint notices active today. The structural price signal is straightforward: prices are soft through mid-morning as demand sits well below the 1,600 MW level where stack tightness has historically emerged, with the inflection expected in the 15:00–17:00 AEST window as solar fails to materialise under cloud cover and demand trends toward the evening peak.