Commodity Demand — QLD1 — Wednesday 29 April 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $70.96/MWh with demand at 6,741 MW as of 06:35 AEST, tracking on a clear upward trajectory through the morning ramp. The demand profile today replicates a textbook autumn weekday shape: an overnight trough near 4,770–5,130 MW where prices repeatedly printed at or below zero (negative as low as -$3.20/MWh between roughly 10:00–14:30 AEST), followed by a sharp morning climb that lifted demand through 5,500 MW around 14:30 AEST and accelerated to the current 6,741 MW. Price response to that climb has been proportional — spot moved from near-zero to the $52–$65/MWh band once demand cleared 5,800 MW, then stepped up into the $70–$83/MWh range as demand pushed above 6,400 MW. The consistency of that relationship across today's intervals confirms the supply stack is steep in this demand range, with each incremental 300–400 MW of load pulling in noticeably higher-cost plant.

The morning peak is still building. Today's demand reached 7,918 MW at around 17:55 AEST — the highest point in the dataset — with prices holding $64–$82/MWh across that window, peaking at $82.46/MWh as demand crossed 7,656 MW. Demand has since pulled back to 6,741 MW as the morning commercial load begins to ease, and price has followed to $70.96/MWh. The forecast for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is $72.83/MWh, consistent with the most recent run of forecasts from 15:00–19:30 UTC which have converged tightly in the $72.83–$73.50/MWh range — indicating dispatchers see limited demand upside from current levels for the next half-hour. The QNI interconnector restriction (constraint set I-QN_550, active since 17:40 AEST on 29 April due to the Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV line outage scheduled through 2 May) continues to limit northward transfer capacity from NSW, reducing Queensland's import headroom and keeping the supply stack slightly tighter than it would otherwise be at this demand level.

Looking ahead through today, the moderate autumn maximum of 22.2°C forecast for 30 April removes any significant air-conditioning load component from the afternoon. The solar window — absent overnight, now at zero with sunrise still ahead — will begin suppressing net demand from roughly 08:00 AEST, consistent with what played out today when prices collapsed to near-zero coinciding with solar generation entering the mix. The overnight and early-morning load windows show forecast prices well below current levels, with multiple intervals projected negative between approximately 08:30–14:00 AEST (23:30–04:00 UTC). The evening demand ramp from roughly 17:00–20:00 AEST is where price risk concentrates: if today's pattern repeats, demand climbs back through 6,500–7,500 MW and spot moves into the $65–$83/MWh corridor. Flexible load operators and battery operators should note the strong intraday price arbitrage signal — the spread between the forecast near-zero midday trough and the $70+/MWh evening peak exceeds $70/MWh across