Carbon Forecast — Wednesday 29 April 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM is deeply split this morning. At 06:15 AEST, SA1 sits at just 0.07 tCO2/MWh with 84.85% renewable penetration — wind at 651 MW is carrying virtually the entire local load, with a small 116 MW gas CCGT contribution. Tasmania is at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables across its 360 MW hydro and wind mix. At the other end of the spectrum, QLD1 is the highest-intensity region on the NEM at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with only 3.65% renewables — black coal at 2,282 MW dominates that grid with negligible solar or wind contribution at this hour. NSW1 sits at 0.84 tCO2/MWh (4.78% renewable) with 4,950 MW of black coal and no gas or hydro dispatched. VIC1 is at 0.62 tCO2/MWh with 46.28% renewables, where 1,156 MW of wind is running alongside 1,223 MW of brown coal and 138 MW of gas OCGT.

The trajectory through today's data reveals distinct intraday patterns. VIC1 has improved materially through the day — intensity was above 1.09 tCO2/MWh in the overnight hours and has compressed to 0.62 tCO2/MWh as wind output has strengthened, a reduction of more than 40% over the period. SA1 followed a similar but more volatile path: intensity briefly spiked toward 0.34 tCO2/MWh around 19:10–19:40 AEST as wind eased and gas stepped up, before falling back sharply as wind recovered. QLD1 and NSW1 have shown almost no intraday variation since approximately 17:45 AEST — both regions are locked in a narrow band driven by baseload coal with negligible renewable contribution at this time of day.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the best windows on the NEM right now are in SA1 and TAS1 and have been consistent since around 00:15–00:30 AEST when SA1 intensity dropped below 0.10 tCO2/MWh. That SA1 window has held through the evening and remains open now. VIC1 offers a secondary opportunity — intensity below 0.65 tCO2/MWh has been sustained since approximately 02:15 AEST and wind conditions support that continuing into the morning. The outlook for NSW1 and QLD1 is less favourable: with solar at zero and no material wind or hydro dispatch, both regions will remain high-intensity until solar ramps post-dawn, which on late-April solar angles is likely to deliver only a modest dip — the NSW1 data shows the daytime solar contribution pulls intensity down to around 0.76 tCO2/MWh at best. Carbon-constrained operators in those regions should schedule flexible loads for the 08:00–12:00 AEST window when solar is at its autumn peak.