Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 28 April 2026
The spot price in Victoria sits at $92.36/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,259 MW. This is broadly consistent with where prices have traded through most of today's morning peak — the 06:00–09:00 AEST window saw repeated excursions above $100/MWh, touching $123.90/MWh at 18:35 AEST during the morning peak, before settling back into the low-to-mid $90s range through the afternoon and into the current interval. The 24-hour price profile shows a pronounced overnight trough, with prices dipping negative between approximately 13:15 and 14:25 AEST (the small-hours window in local time), driven by excess supply conditions before demand rebuilt through the morning ramp.
The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,202 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 110.57 MW, wind at 161.95 MW, hydro at 0.42 MW, and both solar and gas CCGT at zero. Solar is absent given the post-sunset timing of the latest data interval. Renewable penetration sits at just 6.56% at this interval, a significant step down from the overnight high of approximately 42.84% recorded around 14:55 AEST when wind output was materially stronger and demand lower. Carbon intensity currently stands at 1.1145 tCO2/MWh, up from intraday lows near 0.66 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the shift in generation mix as wind contribution has moderated and brown coal output holds firm to meet rising evening demand.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are tightly clustered around $91–$93/MWh, with the most recent run pointing to $91.44/MWh — indicating the market expects current conditions to persist with no material price relief or escalation in the immediate term. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval forecasts are slightly higher, ranging mostly $96–$98/MWh across successive predispatch runs, with one outlier run at $123.69/MWh suggesting some residual uncertainty around that period. Load shifting windows show strong value in the 08:30–10:30 AEST overnight period, where forecast prices drop well below $10/MWh and into negative territory as demand falls and supply conditions ease.
On active market notices, no reserve or supply adequacy issues are flagged for Victoria today. The MT PASA notice published this morning confirms no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM for the outlook period. A South Australian Forecast LOR1 condition that was declared for the 04:00–06:30 AEST window has since been cancelled. There is also an active non-conformance notice for NSW unit VP6 covering a brief interval earlier today, which does not directly affect Victorian dispatch but is noted for interconnector flow context. The MSATS eMDM April maintenance release is flagged as completed, with no ongoing system impact.