Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Tuesday 28 April 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $97.07/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,155.85 MW. Tracing the price history across today's dispatch intervals reveals a clear intraday shape: prices bottomed in the low-to-mid $70s/MWh overnight (roughly 12:30–14:30 AEST), ran through a morning peak band of $106.02–$106.10/MWh during the 17:00–19:30 AEST window, spiked briefly to $151–$156/MWh around 04:05–04:15 AEST during what appears to have been a short-lived supply tightness event, then eased back to the current $97.07/MWh level as demand climbed into the evening. The 24-hour price range has been wide — from $70.62/MWh to $156.39/MWh — reflecting Tasmania's characteristic sensitivity to Basslink conditions and hydro dispatch decisions.
The generation mix is entirely renewable at this interval. Hydro is contributing 565.71 MW and wind 31.29 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero output. Total scheduled generation of approximately 597 MW against 1,155.85 MW of demand indicates the balance is being sourced via Basslink import from Victoria, which is consistent with typical Tasmanian operating conditions during shoulder seasons. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — a status that has held continuously across every recorded interval in today's carbon history dataset.
Predispatch forecasts for the next several half-hours are tightly clustered at $96.12/MWh, suggesting the market expects prices to ease very slightly from the current $97.07/MWh as demand likely plateaus or eases into the late evening. Further out, overnight intervals from around 09:00–12:00 AEST show forecast prices dropping into the $72–$84/MWh range, consistent with low overnight demand and the hydro-heavy dispatch profile Tasmania runs during off-peak periods. Early-morning forecasts earlier today had flagged $140–$165/MWh for the 07:00 AEST target interval; those levels did not materialise and forecasts were progressively revised down to $96.12/MWh from around 14:00 AEST onwards, indicating the supply situation resolved.
On active market notices, none of the current notices directly affect TAS1. The most operationally relevant notice for the broader NEM is the MT PASA reserve notice (MN 144008, issued 28 April), which identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the interconnected system. An SA region Forecast LOR1 was declared for 04:00–06:30 AEST today (MN 144006) but was subsequently cancelled (MN 144009), and a NSW1 non-conformance was recorded for unit VP6 at 00:40–00:45 AEST. Neither event has a direct TAS1 price or dispatch implication. The eMDM April maintenance release (CHG0108549) completed overnight with no reported market impacts.