Regional Outlook — SA1 — Tuesday 28 April 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $96.13/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,410 MW. That price represents a significant normalisation from a volatile overnight session that saw intervals peak above $275/MWh during the morning ramp between approximately 17:05 and 18:25 AEST, before collapsing to near-zero and briefly negative territory through the early hours as demand fell below 750 MW. Prices recovered steadily through the afternoon and evening, settling into a $80–$96/MWh band from around 03:00 AEST onward. The 24-hour price profile has been sharply bimodal: a sustained high-price morning window followed by a deep overnight trough, with the current reading sitting toward the upper end of the post-trough range.

The current generation mix is entirely wind and gas CCGT. Wind is contributing 528 MW and gas CCGT 133 MW, with gas OCGT and solar both at zero output. At 06:30 AEST solar generation is yet to ramp, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 79.86%, and carbon intensity is 0.099 tCO2/MWh — both metrics having improved materially from the morning peak period when intensity reached as high as 0.512 tCO2/MWh at around 17:00–18:15 AEST as gas plant carried a much larger share of the load. The overnight-to-now trajectory shows a clear correlation between wind output sustaining above 500 MW, renewable fraction recovering above 75%, and intensity falling back below 0.10 tCO2/MWh.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour are tightly clustered around $95–$101/MWh, with the most recent runs (from 06:01–06:31 AEST) pointing to $95.34–$96.83/MWh — broadly in line with the current settlement. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast slightly higher at $106–$109/MWh across most recent runs, suggesting modest upward price pressure as demand lifts into the morning business peak and solar generation remains limited. Load window forecasts indicate prices will retreat sharply from approximately 08:30 AEST onward, with intervals from 09:00–11:30 AEST forecast sub-$10/MWh and multiple intervals pointing to negative prices between approximately 10:30 and 11:30 AEST — consistent with the expected midday solar ramp suppressing wholesale prices.

On market notices, the most operationally relevant item for SA is the now-cancelled Forecast LOR1 condition (Market Notice 144006) that had flagged a potential reserve shortfall of 25 MW between 04:00 and 06:30 AEST today. AEMO cancelled that notice at 01:55 AEST (Market Notice 144007), indicating the reserve position resolved without intervention. The MT PASA notice published today confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified over the medium-term outlook. A separate price-review series covering multiple intervals from the prior trading day has been resolved, with prices confirmed unchanged under the Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review process. No active SA-specific constraint or generation non-conformance notices are current.